Submitted by rsteel on
You are never as hot as you think you are. Your luck is never as bad as you think it is. You are NEVER due to win. Now that we have this out of the way we can get to the keys to the issue. Gamblers think when they get hot they are invulnerable. They think the laws of probability do not apply to them.
Each decision each bet has to be evaluated on its’ own. Personally based on 20 years of my own historical detailed record keeping I will carry a 55-45 win loss ratio. Not on every 100 trials sometimes higher sometimes lower but over a 1,000+ sample that is invariably the ratio. Anyone that claims to run higher over large sample size is just plain out lying. It is mathematically impossible. The good news even at that ratio you are in the top 1% in this business and depending on your unit dollar value making great money.
Picture 1,000 marbles in a bag. The black marbles represent losses the white wins. In my bag I have 555 white and 445 black. I do not know what order they will come out in once I start choosing them. I know when a white marble does come out thee is a greater chance of a black now coming out. Do the math for yourself. Will as I continue to choose marbles have a run of at least 10 straight black marbles representing losses highly likely maybe even higher than 10.
Can I withstand those types of bad runs emotionally and economically? Yes! First I am prepared and I expect this to occur it is not a surprise. The law of probabilities says it will happen. Secondly I flat bet. Each bet is a RISK of 2% of my bankroll. When I am on a hot streak I do not raise my unit when I am on a cold streak I do not lower my unit.
My bankroll made up of units is my inventory if I run out of units I am out of business.
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