Submitted by rsteel on
Over the course of your sports betting career, you’re going to lose a good chunk of wagers for a million different reasons .A missed field goal. A meaningless 3-pointer. A wild pitch. An empty-net goal. An injury to the star quarterback. The list goes on and on…
Some of those bet-busting phenomena are out of your hands, but some losing bets leave you smacking yourself in the forehead wondering, “What the hell was I thinking?!”
Betting against streaks
All streaks come to an end and figuring out when is a high-risk, high-reward game. When sizing up a team on an extended losing slide, it may be best to wait until that club shows some signs of life and snaps the skid before getting down on them.
You should never bet on a bad team when they’re playing badly. That's just dumb.
Skewed stats/record
Often times the result on the scoreboard does not quite reflect how a game played out. Teams can get completely outplayed on both ends, but turnovers or a couple costly errors from the other side can mask those troubles. When they're installed as a favorite, I will generally make a case against them as they are obviously not playing their best ball of the season.
Public overkill
The betting public is far more knowledgeable than ever before but there are still times in which too much “square” love is a bad thing. Many professionals are contrarian by nature and, while you should not blindly fade the public’s favorite plays each and every time, you can find good value on the other side of these public picks.
Poor chemistry
It can be a new-look roster failing to jell, chemistry is key when betting on team sports.
It is hard enough to win and when a team can’t set aside its differences and play together, it’s often impossible.
Injury impact
Factoring how much an injury plays into the outcome of a game is one of the most difficult tasks a sports bettor can face. Often times a big-name injury can be overvalued, with oddsmakers making a slight adjustment to the odds and the betting public piling on. Other injuries - ones that don’t command a knee-jerk modification to the line - can have a much bigger effect on a team and how they perform. Misreading into these missing players can quickly spoil a wager.