Submitted by rsteel on
Handicapping is a constantly evolving process. Year by year season by season even game by game. Some people are under the impression handicapping is nothing more than a number crunching formula driven exercise which punches out plays. Nothing could be further from the truth. If the better team or better pitcher won and covered every game we would all be rich.
One of the biggest mistakes made in handicapping is to over-react to one result. Seeing a team do well in a game and drawing conclusions will commonly find you on the wrong side in the next game.
In my opinion the most successful handicappers are the ones that adhere to the 50-50 rule. 50% of my decision making process is weighted to the numbers with the focus on the last 5 games of results. The other 50% is intangibles situational issues. Such as motivation, injuries, travel, head to head matchups, weather, coaching, and many other issues. These so called intangibles than have to be converted to a numerical value in order for you to make your final line before comparing it to the books. This is how you determine VALUE. You have to constantly be asking the question have these factors been accurately depicted in the line.
Remember handicapping is NOT about simply determining which team will win the game and cover. It is picking the right team at the right price. Long term you cannot succeed without taking into account both parts of the equation.