Submitted by rsteel on
We all know in sports betting there are NO situations that work all the time. There are also NO situations on their own without other reasons that would constitute a bet. Finding a spot that consistently wins 55% of the time well that is something to focus on.
You often hear people say I ONLY bet dogs. That is the only way to make money. That is ridiculous. First of all you are eliminating half of the possible bets by ignoring favorites. Give me a motivated favorite who obviously has more talent, I know is going to show up and play full out from beginning to end; is by FAR the best bet you can find. Perhaps the favorite is on a bounce back, revenge, must win etc. this along with supporting mathematical evidence will constitute a very good value bet.
Being a grinder and value bettor the next best bet is your home dog where appropriate. A home dog that is well coached well rested playing a favorite that is over confident in a sandwich game or who just wants to win and go home this is a good bet. Home dogs rarely give up. Road teams quit all the time. Favorites let up all the time leading to back door covers. Home underdogs will almost always have your ticket in play right until the end.
I am often asked can team A cover the spread of for example 11.5 over team B. My answer is always the same. If they are favored by that much of course they can. The real question as a sports handicapper you SHOULD be asking yourself is WILL they and more importantly WHY.