Submitted by rsteel on
Betting baseball in September is a different animal than the rest of the year. Look for pitchers that have run out of gas. This usually coincides with the amount of innings they have pitched on the year and it also occurs at a number they have never crossed before. Conversely look for pitchers with fresh arms that have low innings pitched maybe due to injury.
Rosters are expanded giving the manager more flexibility with catchers, the bullpen, pinch running and hitting. You must keep an eye on the daily line ups and who has been added to the roster.
Line makers will shade lines to teams who “need” to win. They are not stupid they know that is the side they are going to take the money on. Remember just because a team needs to win is irrelevant to who wins. Often the team playing out the string with no pressure playing free and easy for next year contracts enjoy playing the spoiler role. Most of these teams have already been out for weeks. Pay attention to their teams’ attitude. Have they quit? Have they packed it in? Some bad teams play their best ball down the stretch with no pressure while other teams are totally disinterested.
Lastly the weather turns chilly again especially at night. The colder the weather the less the ball travels. Look for lower scoring games when handicapping totals.
Betting late season baseball can be very profitable when the majority of the line makers time turns to football.