Submitted by rsteel on
As some of you are aware I do not bet totals in MLB, NHL, NCAAB. In my opinion too many variables out of our control (too many to list for the grapevine) after we place the bet that will prevent us from turning a profit long term.
However in the NFL NCAAF and NBA totals are beatable. More specifically if you want long term success be an under bettor.
It is easier to find value with an under than an over:
1)People like scoring they bet overs.
2)People like overs because they can win their bet before the game is over. I take an opposite viewpoint. For one thing nothing has to happen for me to win. The game starts off 0-0. I am a winner until many things happen as opposed to a loser trying to get to the finish line. The burden is on the over.
3)Injuries, lineup changes inclement weather usually favor the under bettor.
4)Look for games with big spreads where you anticipate the superior team will be in full control. Often they will slow the pace milk the clock in the late stages solidifying the under. Blowouts will generally be lower scoring in the second half of games.