Submitted by rsteel on
It is easy to draw conclusions off of small sample sizes. Be aware this leads to BIG mistakes. How many times have you asked yourself how can a team look so good one night and then so bad the very next night against a weaker opponent?
The answer is easier than you think. We are in the business of predicting outcomes of sporting events played by humans. Humans by nature are unpredictable especially in the short term. The shorter the time spans the more volatile the results will be. Everyone has off nights.
Be very careful when you catch yourself saying that team sucks or that team is unbelievable because you watched them on TV. Any team can look really good or really bad on any given game. Any team can be bet on or against depending on the line and what constitutes value.
The toughest concept that most sports bettors have trouble dealing with is that we DO NOT pick winners of individual sporting events no one can. It is impossible to do so unless you have tomorrow’s newspaper. What we do in order to determine value is ask ourselves each and every time we place a bet if this game were played 100 times under ALL the same conditions would we win it enough times based on the posted line to make money. This is the essence of sports handicapping. In the world of point spreads with juice of -1.10 that win rate is 53 out of 100. Of course with money lines the win rate fluctuates substantially depending on the match-up.
I am a big believer in the bounce back or return to the mean. When a player or team has a game that is far off from the norm good or bad there is a reasonable expectation that event will return to the norm in the next game. It is obviously not a given considering the next opponent, travel, injuries etc. but something you always have to consider before placing your next bet.