Chasing Lines 05/13/12 (more...)


Submitted by rsteel on

We discussed in a previous grapevine about not chasing or forcing a play when you lose a game, today we will discuss not chasing a line.
There is only one way to win consistently in this business. You MUST know the sports that you are betting on at an extreme micro level. You than pick out the games on the menu where you feel the line maker has erred (difference between the line you set on the game and the line the sports book has.) There is no magic formula fancy power rankings insider information computer simulating systems that are going to continually spit out winners for you. There are just too many intangibles with each event.
When you set a line on a game say -3.0 the book has it at -4.0 or more obviously no play. If the book has it at -2.0 or less play. However if the line moves against you and heads upward to that -4.0 or more PASS the game the value is gone. Do not chase the line or more times than not you are going to get burned.
Conversely if that same game you set the line at -3.0 in the morning when you compare to the book it has it at -5.0 at that point it is a pass. In the afternoon before tip off the line has come down to -2.0 by all means go ahead and bet you have your value.
Very important to stay disciplined in your approach of what has value, or had value or what has now become value.

grapevine
Rick Steel's betting tips
Chasing Lines 05/13/12 (more...) | Professional Sports Handicapping

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