Submitted by rsteel on
We discussed in a previous grapevine about not chasing or forcing a play when you lose a game, today we will talk about not chasing a line.
There is only one way to win consistently in this business. You MUST know the sports you are betting on at an extreme micro level. You than pick out the games on the menu where you feel the line maker has erred OR where the money has moved the line to a point you feel it is wrong. Hence in these situations you have value the difference between the line you set on the game and the posted line at the sports book. There are no magic formulas or power rankings that are going to continually spit out winners for you. There are just too many intangibles with each event.
When you set a line on a game say -3.0 the book has it at -4.0 or more than no play. If the book has it at -2.0 or less play. However if the line moves against you before you bet and heads upward to that -4.0 or more pass the value on that game is gone. Do not chase the line and still bet it more times than not you will get burned.
Conversely if that same game you set the line at at -3.0 in the morning when you compare to the book it is -5.0 at that point is a pass. In the afternoon before tip off the line has come down to -2.0 by all means pounce and bet it you have value.
Remember we deal with fluid markets stay disciplined in your approach of what has value or had value or what has now become value.