Submitted by rsteel on
There are many similarities handicapping Ncaaf and the Nfl as well there are many differences. Much like starting pitchers in baseball the QB in football whether pros or college can make or break your bets.
Top tier teams obviously recruit the best from the high school ranks so although there will be growing pains the drop off from prior years will not be as great as the market thinks. Secondly when the previous years starting Qb has graduated and been drafted teams that have been able to promote their back-ups usually have an advantage. Continuity and the new Qb knowing the playbook is an especially big advantage early on in the season.
Sometimes when a star Qb leaves there is no viable player in line to replace him. This team will likely experience some major growing pains they will likely simplify the playbook. This is a team that will be overvalued in the marketplace based on prior reputation.
Turnover of rosters in college football is huge. Look for teams with many returning starters to get off to quick starts, especially when they go up against teams with many freshman starters. However be wary of teams with low turnover who were bad the year before. It is very likely unless there was a coaching change that this team will be bad again.
Strength of schedule is critical when handicapping college football. Many high ranked teams play cupcakes prior to conference play. Although their stats maybe outstanding when this team comes up against their first real competition make sure you adjust for who they have played. Conversely a team that has played a very difficult non-conference schedule maybe undervalued once they takes a step down to play teams within their weak conference.
Also when assessing the schedule look for those usual look ahead and let down spots. A look ahead is when a team is a major favorite but has a big rivalry game on deck. The current game could be a simple win and move on playing 2nd stringers in the 2nd half with running up the score inconsequential. There are also sandwich games that fall in the same category. Off a tough game now a cupcake team that does not motivate them at all with another big game on deck the next week.
There are 15 teams with new coaches heading into the 2015 season. That is actually low turnover wise to prior years. Remember new coaches even at the coordinator level means new systems and perhaps a new philosophy on how this team will play. You also want to look at teams where the existing coach is on the “hot seat” coming off a bad year. It is now win or be fired so pay special attention if there has been a change on how this coaching staff is handling their situation.