Submitted by rsteel on
I recently posted a grapevine on the 2 ways you can increase your unit. So I thought it would be appropriate to address when you should decrease your unit. The answer is NEVER!
I will explain. Part of the reason I am even talking about this is because the question has come up off of the lousy run we had in Nov and Dec 2015. Remember a unit is 2% of your bankroll. Your unit is the amount you RISK on each play not the amount you can win. Flat betting risking the same amount on each game is the only way to long term success in this business in my opinion.
I repeat the points in paragraph 2 because this method can withstand any extended losing we have to endure. Also remember no one can predict when a losing streak or winning streak will begin or end. It is impossible.
So let’s review a simplistic example of changing your unit size downward and the negative impact it has. We will assume your unit is $100. Let us assume during a bad run we go 5-20 for a roughly -15.0 units and a negative $1,546 assuming a line on avg of -1.10 over 25 plays. Now you decide to reduce your unit to $50 and over the next 25 plays we go 20-5. Your net profit will be $659 instead of $1,310 if you left your unit at $100.
I know the above is simplistic and is used for example purposes. However the math works under any circumstances. If you reduce your unit it will literally take you OVER double the amount of time and plays in order to recover off a bad streak.
So I repeat for emphasis, NEVER reduce your unit. Flat bet use my money management technique and you will be able to withstand any losing streak that I have ever had to incur.