Submitted by rsteel on
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When handicapping MLB especially this late in the season much attention must be focused on pitch counts and innings pitched year to date. When a pitcher gets up to 175+ innings arm fatigue starts to kick in. Less pop on the fastball less break on the curve ball. This is especially true for pitchers who have never come close to this type of workload before.
First and second year pitchers this fatigue will start to be noticed much earlier. When you have a pitcher coming off a 115 pitch game look in his next start to go against him especially if he is a middle of the rotation kind of guy. There are 3 factors that could create value in this situation.
#1 Fatigue
#2 Since this is a middle rotation mediocre pitcher he pitched well last game or he would not have reached 115 pitches so you have the reversal factor.
#3 The market will see his last well pitched game looking to bet on him forcing his price higher creating value for us to take the other side.