Submitted by rsteel on
Show me a team that has an injury to their QB or one of their star players and I will show you a team that I am looking to bet ON. The markets will overreact to the importance of this injury pushing the line to where there is value on this team.
Show me a team that has injuries to their offensive or defensive lines (especially at the center position) and I will show you a team that I am looking to bet AGAINST. Why? These injuries are under the radar for the betting public. The spread rarely if ever is adjusted for these key injuries. You cannot emphasis enough the importance of the big guys along the line. Remember the team that can control the line of scrimmage will usually win the game.
You also want to keep your eye open for cluster injuries. When a team has numerous injuries for example in the secondary and they are calling people in for workouts or are starting people from the 3rd level of their depth chart you obviously want to look to go against this team.