Submitted by rsteel on
When handicapping MLB especially this late in the season much attention is focused on pitch counts and innings pitched year to date. When a pitcher gets up to 175+ innings arm fatigue starts to kick in. This is especially the case for pitchers who have never come close to this type of workload before.
When you have a pitcher coming off a start where he threw 115+ pitches especially this late in the season look to go against him; add to that incentive if he is a middle of the rotation type of guy. There are 3 factors in play that will potentially create value in this situation. Fatigue is obviously #1 , since this is a mediocre pitcher to begin with he obviously pitched well in his last game or he would not have had a high pitch count so you have the correction factor where he will return to form in this start, lastly as the market sees a good last start they buy in to him lowering the price hence creating value as we look to take the opposite side.
Remember as usual this is just one tool it takes many factors in your analysis for any match up to create a bet.
Remember registration for our 2011 NFL survivor football contest is well underway. The grand prize is $2,000. Details on the rules and how to qualify to enter are located on the home page of the website. Registrations will close Thurs Sept 15 at 5pm est.
The website will be down starting Sunday evening. We are changing hosting companies to better serve you. Hopefully the site will not be down for very long. Picks with analysis will be delivered via email temporarily while the site is down.
- Log in to post comments