Submitted by rsteel on
You are never as hot as you think you are. Your luck is never as bad as you think it is. You are never due to win. Now that we have this out of the way we can get to the meat of the issue. Gamblers think when they get hot they are invulnerable. They think the laws of probability do not apply to them.
Each decision each bet has to be evaluated on its’ own. Personally based on 20+ years of my own historical detailed record keeping I will carry a 55-45 win/loss ratio. Sometimes higher sometimes lower over smaller sample sizes. However over sample sizes of 1,000+ this is invariably the ratio. Anyone who claims to run higher over large sample sizes they are lying. It is mathematically impossible. The good news at the 55-45 ratio you are in the top 1% in the world and applying proper money management principles depending on your unit dollar value you are making great money.
Picture 1,000 marbles in a bag. The black marbles represent losses the white wins. In my bag I have 555 white and 445 black. I do not know what order they will come out once I start choosing them. I know when a white marble does come out there is a greater chance of a black now coming out. Is it likely that there will be runs of 10 straight white or 10 straight black at some point? Sure in fact maybe higher than 10.
Can I withstand those types of black marble streaks emotionally and economically? Yes! I am prepared and I expect this to occur it will not be a surprise. The law of probabilities says it will happen. Secondly I flat bet. Which means I RISK the same amount on each play. Each bet the risk is 2% of my bankroll. When I am on a hot streak I do not raise my unit when I am on a cold streak I do not lower my unit.
My bankroll is made up of units is my inventory. If I run out of units I am out of business.