Submitted by rsteel on
With the football season just underway you are going to find a handful of games each week both in NCAAF and NFL where there is big movement in a line in one direction. It is a “sheep” game. What happens a key syndicate gets out in the lead and pounds it. After that the herd mentality takes place and everyone jumps on it.
That is not to say as the line continues to move in one direction that it is the wrong direction. What I am saying just as many times the move is right as it is wrong.
Do your own handicapping to determine if there is still value. Most importantly set a drop dead number you will still take the play. Do not continue to chase the line especially if it is moving through key numbers like 3 4 7 and 10. Realize with the heavy move there is now an additional risk where the outcome can land somewhere in between the opening and closing number.
Taking the worst number you can get away with it on occasion but long term it will prove very costly. In fact sometimes depending on your analysis when the line bottoms out is to go against the move and grab the value on the opposite side of the line move.
If you do your own handicapping trust your work do not be influenced by what others might be playing. If you are following someone else make sure you are getting fresh information not betting into a stale number.