Submitted by rsteel on
Betting on a team because they HAVE to win ranks right up there with all the useless trends touts like to quote that goes back 2 years or longer. Who cares what happened with this matchup 2 years or 5 years ago the teams and situations were completely different. In fact sometimes the matchup of 2 teams that played 1 month ago becomes irrelevant if there was a major injury or situational issue different from the first game.
Just because a team must win or needs it more does not mean they are going to win or more importantly cover. How many times have you asked yourself how could that team lose when the game was so important to them making the playoffs when the other team was just playing out the string and cannot wait for the season to end.
Yes a team needing to win has a bit more focus more motivated. However realize this is already encompassed in the line the odds makers are not stupid they know that is where they are going to take the majority of the money. Secondly the team needing to win takes less risks plays more tightly sometimes leading to a poor result.
The team playing out the string plays loose takes chances. They are ALL pros everyone is playing for something. Players did not make it to this level if they were not very competitive hate to lose and have a big ego. Everyone is playing for next year’s contract. The difference between these 2 teams with the team already out of it the players are more selfish looking to pad their own stats it becomes less of a team game. Secondly a team out of it if you get to them early has less will to fight back. We have all heard coaches say let’s jump on them early.
Lastly when you have a team that has been out of it for a while playing a team with everything on the line there is an extra energy for the team out of it to try and play the role of spoiler. When you have 2 teams that are both playing out the string the task of handicapping who will show up becomes that much more challenging.
In conclusion as you often hear me say with any play you need multiple reasons why you have value why there is weakness in the line in order to risk your hard earned money.