November College Football 11/04/12 (more...)

2 months into the season stats become more meaningful teams play more to their averages experience or lack thereof becomes less critical.
Look for teams that were not very good in September and October but who have not quit. Look for teams that can effectively run the ball as the weather gets worse and throwing the ball becomes more difficult. Defenses that were bad early get worse. It is much tougher to play defense and when fatigue sets in and the season is lost it is difficult to summon the energy to make stops.
Look for teams that have poor records that can be attributed to a negative turnover ratio or fluky situations like a kick return blocked kicked etc. Especially look at teams that are losing despite outgaining and getting more first downs than their opponents. There will be value.