Odds Makers Motives 02/13/2011(more...)

~Odds Makers Motive~ A 4-0 Saturday has the momentum right where we want it as we head into the last day of week #7 of our betting year. Next week we will do another R.O.I. check.

Pop quiz : Do you know what happens today ? If you answered pitchers and catchers report to spring training go to the head of the class. Always a good sign that warmer weather is close. I am ready for opening day NOW ! How about you ?

Remember and this is a very important issue the opening line set on the game is NOT the opinion of the lines maker of the final score. If the line is –2.0 it does not mean the lines maker thinks it is going to be a close game or the final score will be 98-96 for the favorite.

All of this is irrelevant to the line maker. The –2.0 represents the opening opinion of the book as to what number it will take to get the money coming in equally on both sides. Rarely does this occur so as the money starts to come in the line is adjusted to continue the battle from his perspective to get money on both sides or at least stop the money from coming in on 1 side. Until you understand fully the motives and how the lines maker does his job you cannot effectively search for value and do your job.

In the NBA look for an underdog that won outright the night before has to travel to a court where as a favorite that team lost outright the night before. Look for that favorite to be extra focused to get back on track while the dog from the night before content from their previous nights victory.

Do not spot points with a bad team no matter how bad their opponent is. They just do not have experience enough winning period and now you are asking them not only to win but also with a margin.

Look for teams that in mid season who have made changes. It could be coaching, trades, philosophy on how they are going to play, roster shake ups, key player back from injury,etc etc. The key here is to get ahead of the curve. The public is slow to react to these changes hence you will find value in the line that is based more on historical results rather than what is happening currently.