Over Reacting 03/20/2011(more...)

~Over Reacting~
6-1 over the last 3 days as we move on to Sunday where at the conclusion we will be down to the sweet 16 in March Madness.

Handicapping is a constantly evolving process. Year by year season by season even game by game. Some are under the impression it is nothing more than a number crunching formula driven exercise which punches out plays. Nothing could be further from the truth. If the better team won and covered every game if the better pitcher won every game we would all be rich. There is so much subjectivity involved in making your selections. How does one handicapper interpret the objective information
versus another handicapper.

Understanding the results of each bet is a key to understanding the true cycles of sports betting. One of the biggest mistakes made in handicapping is to over-react to one result. Seeing one team do well in a game and drawing conclusions moving forward is a common mistake. Trying to determine the bet “ on” or bet “against “
a team decision simply by watching the scoreboard can quickly lead a handicapper down the wrong path.

So many things can happen over the course of a game that produce results that are not properly measured in a box score or game re-cap. There is no substitute for watching the games. Not only the games you have bet but as many as possible either on-line or television to help prepare you for future potential bets. Get yourself a PVR if you do not have one. It is an excellent investment for this business. It will allow you to watch games in less than 30 minutes.

Did you win your bet because of your handicapping or despite it. Analyze your losses. Was your handicapping solid even though the result was not. This is all part of the process of your growth as a handicapper.

In my opinion the most successful handicappers are the ones that adhere to the 50-50 plan. 50% of my decision making process is weighted to the numbers with the focus on the last 5 games of results. The other 50% are the intangibles. This is
where your money is made. The intangibles include motivational actors, injuries, travel, head to head match ups, home/away dichotomies, coaching match up, player by player match ups, weather, scheduling to mention just a few items. This includes all issues that do not start out with an automatic numerical value assigned to them.

Remember do what everyone else does and you will get similar results. Go beyond the numbers do the extra work and you will find weaknesses and therefore value on some off the lines posted at the sports book.