Submitted by rsteel on
Unfortunately we took the collar yesterday going 0-5. A combination of some bad reads and 2 games losing by a bucket. Regardless for most of you are already aware these days are inevitable. No matter how hard I work; per year on average we will have 3 or 4 of these type of days. It is obviously not fun when it happens but I accept it and move on.
We are 9-8 in our last 17 plays after the ugly Saturday. I only point this out to emphasize you cannot get caught up good or bad in the daily and even weekly swings that take place. We are as consistent as you possibly can be in this business. Our bankroll swings are relatively small compared to the industry averages. Keep your focus on the year end goal everything else will take care of itself.
The good news as we head in to the last day of week 8 of our sports betting year we are in a profitable position. Our ROI sits at a positive 1.776 %. You should compare this to what your ROI is. If it is higher great if it is lower that would indicate you are either missing plays or not doing a good enough job shopping and getting the best lines possible.Make sure you have enough sports books to shop at to get the best line possible always.Remember every year we expect to turn a profit with an ROI in the 3-7% range.
Injuries : We have all seen this. A point guard in basketball is out a QB goes down in football 2 days before game time. The line is adjusted. Usually the public overreacts and the line is moved too far causing value to appear actually with the team that has the key injury.
However what you should look at even more closely is the total. While the game line goes through an adjustment and than some the total is usually not adjusted enough.Look to play the under when a key injury occurs. The timing with the receivers when the back up plays is not as sharp ( they usually do not practice together during the week) the cohesiveness of the offense when the point guard goes down is not as sharp scoring down = under.
Click the link below you will be able to listen to part 1 of 4 of an interview with a line maker at Pinnacle. Learn more about the inner workings of a sports book will make you more effective as a sports handicapper.Look for the balance of the interview in future grapevines.
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