Submitted by rsteel on
Any line you set is a combination of art and science. An opening baseball line from the book perspective we know is made from at least 70% starting pitching. So yes obviously you do have to do your work in this area. However that is not going to find you major weaknesses in the line. The odds maker has already incorporated this work into his line.
Here are the areas I concentrate on:
Award 25-35 cents to the home team. Batting last is a big advantage.
Look at the form of the current offenses that often gets overlooked. No matter how good your starting pitcher is your team is going to have to score some runs.
Bullpen your biggest opportunity to find value. In today’s baseball on average your starting pitcher is going 6 innings. That leaves usually still 33% of the game in the hands of the bullpen where most games are decided. I personally spend the majority of my baseball handicapping in this area.
As in other sports concentrate on current form current stats of the pitcher (usually last 3 starts) and the team (usually last 10 games) Year to date stats in baseball becomes meaningless. Who cares what a team did in May 100 games ago when you are now in September.
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