Submitted by rsteel on
We all know that in sports betting there are NO situations that work all the time. There are also NO situations on their own without other reasons that would constitute a bet. Finding a spot that consistently wins over 55% of the time well that is something to focus on.
You often hear people talking constantly that the only way to win is to bet dogs. I say that is ridiculous. Value is value. Let us break it down further. First of all you are eliminating half of the possible bets by ignoring favorites. Give me a motivated favorite with obviously more talent who I know is going to show up and not let up that is by FAR the best bet you can find. Perhaps the favorite is on a bounce back, revenge, must win etc. this along with supporting factors will constitute a good bet.
I being a grinder a value bettor the next best bet is your home dog where appropriate. A home underdog that is well coached well rested playing a favorite that is over confident in a sandwich game or who just wants to win go home with no injuries and invest the least amount of effort this is a good bet.
Home underdogs rarely give up. Road teams quit all the time favorites let up all the time leading to back door covers; BUT home underdogs will almost always have your ticket in play right until the end and usually taking you to the cashier’s window.