Submitted by rsteel on
Be aware that the big conference NCAAB tournaments get going this upcoming week. Most days will have potential noon est start times and games go off all through the day and night. Stay Tuned.
The longer a season has progressed in any sport the more you will read the phrase in my game analysis “reputation vs. reality”. This relates to analyzing stale numbers. If you are at game 60 in a given season for a team why would you consider stats in your analysis that relate to games 1-30 etc. They are meaningless. Year to date stats carry no weight.
Early season results for a team carry weight with people who calculate power rankings who like stats that will give them a false sense of security. People perceive value in a line because they remember the teams that got off to fast starts the stats which mask what that team is all about today which is all we are concerned about. It is difficult for people to change their early impressions of what that team is all about. Regardless if they have made major trades, coaching changes, injuries you name it this is an area late in any season where you will find weaknesses in the line. The books are forced to post numbers based on the public’s perceptions NOT the current realities of what is really happening right now.
When you are doing your number crunching of a match up to establish your opening line to compare to the books use a rolling average. Disregard year to date stats. Use a 5 game 10 game and 15 game rolling average to establish your number. By doing this you put extra emphasis on the last 5 games which is what you want.Than you can go on to establish numerical values from there for the intangibles such as travel, revenge, fatigue, spots, in other words all the other tools in your handicapping chest.
I would like to remind everyone my selections are provided FREE! All I ask in return open a sports book account from the banners/links on my site. Deposit funds to take advantage of the free picks and help offset the substantial costs of operating the website. It really is a WIN/WIN situation. You need numerous sports book accounts anyway to get the best lines possible. I would hate to be forced to charge for picks or establish a membership fee for those who have not opened a sports book account through my site. With everyone’s cooperation we can avoid this.
Click on the link below and you can listen to part 3 of 4 of an interview with a line maker from Pinnacle.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-YHHmSxX_w Part 3
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