Rick Steel's betting tips

Last week after discussing discipline relating to selection this week we will talk about chasing. A common and big problem many sports bettors have is just this chasing.
How many times do you lose an early game on the menu and then search to find a late game regardless of value to try and make up for your early loss. Not only do some bet on games they normally would not but they also increase their unit digging the hole even deeper.

You can be the most skilled handicapper in the world however if you do not have DISCIPLINE you will NEVER be successful. Discipline relates to money management and selection. Money management is covered on my website in depth on the fundamentals page. If you have any questions in that area contact me. Today we will deal with selection.

Believe it or not starting tonight the 2016 NFLX schedule gets underway with the hall of fame game. There is occasional value in the NFLX. It is the only sport where we bet pre-season games. In fact some years I make more money during the pre-season than the regular season.
A word of caution however. The sports book limits are lower for pre-season games the lines move faster when money arrives. It is most important as always that when a pick is released to the site and app you jump on it right away before the line moves against you and the value is gone.

The business of sports betting is constantly changing and evolving. I began betting on sports when I was in my late teens. I remember my first bookie handing over my winnings of 2K cash and thought this was the easiest thing in the world and I can now retire never having to get a “real job”. Just when you think you have things figured out you realize there is always more to learn. This is obviously a good thing. It keeps you sharp keeps you hungry for more. I HATE to lose EVER.

We have been on a consistent solid grinding excellent run in MLB since opening day. Believe it or not more people go bankrupt in this business during a winning streak than a losing streak. In the movie Wall Street the slogan is “greed is good” in this business it will destroy you. Do not get me wrong we all want to win every game. The sports books have plenty of money. However players on a hot streak think it will last forever and that they are invincible. This business has a way to slap you upside the head humble you very quickly.

We often talk about timing the market in regards to a particular game. This is all about watching the line predicting which way it may go before pulling the trigger and making the bet. NO one times the market with 100% efficiency but after a few years of experience you should have a very good handle on whether to bet early or late on a game and which way the line will move.

*** Look for a SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT on Friday regarding the PSH ios Apple App launch!
The close of the baseball menu today will bring us to the all-star break. Monday July 11th up to and including Thursday July 14th there will be no games (at least the sports we bet on) no plays. I will be tweeting throughout this period. I will be back updating the website and app on Friday July 15th.

I am a numbers guy and I cannot even count the number of times I hear the expression this team is due to win. What I can tell you if you make bets based on a team DUE to win you will be waking up in the DEW because you will not have money for a roof over your head.
The team due to win is usually a high profile team with a solid track record. A team currently playing below perceived expectations. You want to avoid these teams at all costs until they bottom out and then buy back in at bargain basement prices in other words value.

Value is such a misunderstood word in this business. I hear many say value is irrelevant all you have to do is pick the winner. I am here to tell you WRONG! Nothing could be further from the truth. Whenever you talk about the fundamentals of sports betting it begins with value.

In the pre-historic age of sports betting information was at a premium prior to the internet. The serious bettor had a big advantage if they had a contact in another city where the event was being played or were able to get out of town newspapers.
Fast forward today and even the most casual bettor has access to a vast amount of information from anywhere in the world to help them make educated informed bets. However with this technology comes with a danger.