Rick Steel's betting tips

The Grapevine will contain my week-to-week sports betting analysis on the sports we handicap and the sports betting industry.

@ricksteel99 keeps you up to date/mobile

In order for you to remain mobile following me on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and or the app allows you to be notified of a new pick(s) have been posted rather than you having to constantly check. Following me on social media will ensure you do not miss any plays and help you get the best line possible. If you wait too long after I release a pick(s) to bet the line likely will have moved against you losing potential value.

Money line break even %’s chart

I thought I would provide you with a reference chart that you can print out keep handy as you are handicapping games.

On the left is when you are on a money line favorite and on the right is when you are on a money line underdog. The % is the amount of times you will need to win that game at that corresponding line in order to break even.

My motto my mission statement

Since we are about to end our forced pause thankfully and head into a very busy stretch I think it is a good time to review. “SPORTS BETTING AS A BUSINESS”

 From day 1 over 20 years ago even in the not successful times I approached sports betting from this perspective. It did not matter what the size of my unit was it did not matter if I was part time or full time it was always about treating this as a business regardless of the profit or loss especially in the early years.

Baseball 2020 Betting Advice

With the MLB season just under 2 weeks away now is a good time to mention a few items to look out for.

Remember there has been an important rule change this year. I think it is stupid but they do not ask my opinion. When a pitcher is brought into the game he must face a minimum of 3 batters. I anticipate this will lead to higher scoring games as far as the side we will have to monitor this situation as the season progresses but watching closely who is and is not available in the bullpen becomes even more important.

2020 MLB Better late than never

Is it disgusting how we got here YES! Is MLB a hot mess YES! Are the rule changes in my opinion bad for the game YES! Regardless on July 23rd we will be playing ball for real and we will be able to handicap and bet. Is this cause for celebration? YES! YES! YES! 

Buy low sell high Simple right?

Another phrase for the above is called the contrarian approach.

We all know the key to successful handicapping is to find value. In a macro simplistic rule of thumb what you want to do; when everyone is jumping on a team you want to get off. When everyone is jumping off a team they are down on for a recent performance you want to jump on them whenever possible. This is what investing is all about. Buy low sell high I am sure you have all heard that before.

 Look for teams that are winning but when you search under the hood you find misleading results. For example:

Work to Live NOT live to work

Work does not have to be a 4 letter word when you really enjoy what you do for a living. Nothing is perfect everything has its’ pluses and minuses. However whatever you do have passion energy pride enthusiasm in your efforts. You cannot always control the outcomes but you can always control your effort. Enjoy the process as much as possible to avoid burnout.

Sports betting is an intellectual pursuit. It is staying one step ahead of the markets it is constantly challenging forcing you to adjust and adapt.

Value Price is everything

A common myth in handicapping is you should only play dogs and somehow if you bet a favorite you are a square. People value is value. If you are handicapping a game and your line is -2.50 or -9.5 points and the lines at the book are -1.95 or -8.0 respectively guess what you have excellent value play them BOTH. Sometimes the obvious play is the best play. Take the money and move on.

Manage your expectations

Shocking news most casual bettors do not make a profit from sports betting. This is not a terrible thing. If every bettor won there would be no sports books left they would be out of business. However as we know the sports book just acts as a broker. The good news and why sports betting is so advantageous you are not competing against the sports books  you are competing against other sports bettors. The sports book simply takes the money from the losing bettors passes it on to the winning bettors and keeps their cut.