There is the myth that a “perfect result” is when you cash your ticket with ease. Obviously from a stress standpoint that is true. However the “perfect” outcome is one in which the markets do not take much notice. This will allow us to put those same edges in place again.
When you have a vast difference in the last game results i.e. say N.O. is -5.0 over Atl and they win by 25. Guess what the public will put a lot of emphasis on that 1 result. The next games out N.O. will be overvalued while Atl will be undervalued.
When analyzing the statistics of bad teams remember they are actually worse than what has been recorded. Good teams let up in the latter stages of a game; replace their starters for bench players. You will in certain occasions find a spot where the good team is NOT going to let up. Perhaps they have a bye coming up or they are coming off a bad game and want to let out their frustrations and get their confidence back. This spot represents an excellent opportunity to bet the favorite. A common misconception in sports betting is that dogs represent the best betting opportunities.
Any doorknob can go on a hot streak especially when you mix some luck involved with it. You flip a coin 1000x sometime through that flipping you will get an extended run of all heads and all tails. What separates the “lifers” the career sports bettors is long term consistency. To state the obvious this is not a get rich quick scheme. With proper money management, discipline and the ability to handicap to a 53% win rate long term profits season after season year after year will be grinded out. How much profits in absolute dollars will depend on your unit.
Do not ever forget that Sports Betting is all about value. We handicap the 4 major sports. Personally watching hockey is my least favorite sport to watch. So what, this is not about fun it is all about making money, it is an investment.
The NHL season gets underway this Thursday. For those of you who have been with me for a while this grapevine will be a reminder; for those of you betting hockey for the first time with me please note. As detailed on the NHL page of the website ALL games we bet are for 60 minutes (Regulation time ONLY) unless I specify in the game analysis differently.
I am not interested in risking units on a glorified skills competition if the game is tied after 60 minutes.
In a perfect world everyday there would be many games that have value. The greater total dollars bet over the course of the year the greater profit in absolute dollars when you have a positive return on investment as I do over the years. However realistically how many games on a given day CAN there be weaknesses in the line. Regardless whether it is zero games or ten games on a given day your bankroll and mental approach should be prepared for either scenario. However your focus should be on value not quantity.
Show me a team that has an injury to their QB or one of their star players and I will show you a team I am looking to bet ON. Why? The public will overreact to the importance of this injury pushing the line to where there is value on this team.
Your last chance to qualify and register for the NFL survivor contest is Thursday September 15 at 5pm EST. All the details regarding this contest can be viewed by going to the home page of the website.
The smart sports bettor is always on the lookout for the next wager. Regardless of the sport when watching games the sharp bettor already knows the upcoming games for each team. See the handwriting on the wall BEFORE there is handwriting on the wall.
When handicapping MLB especially this late in the season much attention is focused on pitch counts and innings pitched year to date. When a pitcher gets up to 175+ innings arm fatigue starts to kick in. This is especially the case for pitchers who have never come close to this type of workload before.
The Ncaaf season kicks off Thursday Sept 1. Saturday Sept 3 we will have a full slate of games. Remember plays for Ncaaf and the Nfl can be released anytime throughout the week depending on line movement. Every half point every penny on the money line is important to a profitable season. Also remember Saturday’s games kick off as early as noon est.
This week I invite you to go to the website log in and go to the betting tips page to read a recently posted article on handicapping college football.
Are you ready for some FOOTBALL !