Submitted by rsteel on
Regardless if you have been at this for 1 week or 10 years I find the toughest concept people have trouble accepting in this business is we DO NOT pick winners of individual sporting events. That is impossible no one can and if someone says they can either they have tomorrow’s newspaper or they are just lying.
What we do is find value based on our handicapping. So what is the value? The simple answer it is the difference between the line you set for the game vs. the line posted at the sports book. However the more in depth answer includes will you make money on this event if it is played 100 times with the same parameters based on the odds.
I will bet either side of any game depending on the odds. No team will win a game 100% of the time. Even the worst baseball team every year wins at least 60 games.
Take for example the most common line of -1.10. If you like team A and concluded you have value that means you think team A will win this event at least 53 out of every 100 times in order to make money long term. Conversely on another event you like team B at +1.40. Your handicapping has determined you have value because team B will win this event at least 36 times out of every 100 times in order to make money. Regardless if you win this game today or not with solid handicapping you made the right bet and long term you WILL make money.