Submitted by rsteel on
There are 3 general ways to handicap a sporting event:
1)Got a feeling got a hunch bet a bunch.
2)Statistics.
3)Intangibles including motivational, situational and psychological issues.
Most hobbyists use only the first method. The successful sports bettor will use a 50-50 combination of the second and third methods. It is not enough to just crunch the stats use analytics computer simulations etc. That just gets you to your own base line for that game. However everyone including the line maker has access to the same numbers. The real key is to take your base line and adjust it for all the category 3 factors. Now you can compare your line to the sports book line to see if you have value or not. It is how you interpret the information in category 3; attach numerical values to this information which will determine your long term success in this business.
As I always say you need numerous compelling reasons to bet on a game. A recreational player will latch on to 1 factor or some stat or the team played the night before and use this as his complete basis to bet the game. Not enough to win consistently long term. In this business to be successful you have to be part statistician part psychiatrist.
A successful sports bettor has no favorite teams. He will bet on or against any team that can make him money that night. It is critical when handicapping a game that you stay open to ALL factors that might affect the outcome.