Submitted by rsteel on
There are 3 general ways to handicap a sporting event:
1)Got a feeling got a hunch bet a bunch.
2)Statistics.
3)Intangibles including motivational, situational, and psychological issues.
Most hobbyists use only the first method. The successful sports bettor will use a 50-50 combination of the second and third methods. It is not enough to just crunch the stats use analytics and or computer simulations etc. That just gets you to your own base line for that game. However everyone including the line maker has access to the same numbers. These games are played by human beings not robots. These players get up they go down and do the teams. The real key is to take your base line and adjust it up and down for ALL the category 3 factors. Now you can compare your line to the sports book line to see if you have value or not. It is how you interpret the information in category 3; attach numerical values to this information which will determine your long term success in this business.
You need numerous compelling reasons to bet on a game. A recreational player will latch on to 1 factor or some stat he heard from a talking head and use this as the complete basis to bet the game. In this business you have to be part statistician part psychiatrist.
A successful sports bettor has no favorite teams. He will bet on or against any team that can make him money that night. It is critical when handicapping a game that you stay open to ALL the factors that might affect the outcome.