Archived Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Given the venue we will rate the offenses equal. This line is lower than it should be in part because of the run differential of these 2 teams. Ariz should have a better record SF should have a worse record. However these teams are presently tied in the standings and with a med adv in starting pitching and Ariz best hotter Peralta out more than makes up for the run differential. We also have a small adv in the bullpen giving us excellent value given I have this game at 1.39.

Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions

Buffalo Bills over Detroit Lions: Buff has looked sharp so far in the pre-season. The opposite could be said for Det. Buff has outscored Ind and Car combine 51-30. Det has issues especially on the offensive line. They will be going up against a very good Buff defense who for the most part was together last year. Stafford has not taken a snap yet in pre-season. Given Det also has a new off co-ord that is an issue. I do not see Stafford playing much. Coming off an injury from last year and issues protecting the QB they are not going to take any unnecessary risks.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Some of the value deals with the public betting against a road team going for a 4 game sweep. Although it is not common every game stands on its’ own for me it is a non-factor. The Sf offense has been streaky all year. At this time they are hot. Regardless for this game we will rate the offenses equal. Bullpen we will have a med adv. In addition I fully expect Ariz to need more inngs from their bullpen than Sf. Starting pitching we have a small adv. Bumgarner expectedly has better home than away numbers but he is still pitching well.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Both teams are 3.5 games behind the Cubs for the 2nd wild card. Based on current form we will rate the offenses equal. Sf will have a med adv in the bullpen. Sf wil also have a med adv with the starting pitching. Leake will make his 3rd start for Ariz coming over from Sea. A 280 BAA and having given up 31 HR’s he is more of an inngs eater than anything else at this stage of his career. Samardzija is having quietly an excellent bounce back year. He is getting stronger as the season as gone on.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds over Chicago Cubs: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. Chic has been a bad road team all year sitting at 22-35. We have a small adv in the bullpen and a med adv in starting pitching producing the value. Castillo is a true ace with a 188 BAA. Lester has the odd good game but he is definitely on the down side a case of reputation vs reality. A 287 BAA Cinnci has historically hit him well. I have this game at 1.36 giving us excellent value.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves over Miami Marlins: Two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum and two young pitchers as well. Mia is 2-8 in their last 10. Atl is 15-5 when Soroka starts. Soroka had a brief swoon in July but has caught a second wind actually getting stronger. Alcantara numbers show he is running out of gas. You really have to string hits together to score off of Soroka. He does not walk people and has only given up 7 HR in 121 inngs of work. Alcantara has 93K but 63BB.

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros over Baltimore Orioles: Sometimes the obvious play is the right play. Value is value. Miley only gets in trouble when he nibbles too much. Bundy is vulnerable to the long ball against this team likely the most complete top to bottom in MLB that is trouble. Houst is 9-1 in their last 10 as they have got healthy. Miley is pitching at an elite level and although he is not flashy with big strike out totals he is not priced as such. Med adv across the board starting pitching, offense and bullpen. I have this game priced at 2.67 giving us excellent value.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates: Given current form we will rate the offenses and bullpens equal. The value for this game is with the starting pitching where we have a med adv. Anderson is not spectacular by any stretch but he is consistent. Will give you 5-6 inngs keeps the ball in the park and is holding opponents to a 229 BAA. Brault last pitched on July 5th has been out with a left shoulder strain. Prior he had an ugly ratio 53K vs. 32BB. His ERA is 4.15 however when you go under the hood his numbers more project out to an XERA of 4.52.

Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals: As always when we bet SF scoring runs will be the concern. We will take a small disadv into this one but given the venue that should help. Offsetting this as well we will have a med adv in the bullpen. I also expect Samardzija to go deeper in this game than Fedde. Worst case we have a small adv in starting pitching. Fedde is off his worst start as a pro vs. Atl he went 3.6 inngs giving up 9ER. Confidence could be an issue for this inexperienced guy not used to the pressures of baseball stretch drives.

New York Jets vs New York Giants

New York Giants over New York Jets: This will game will be played in the Meadowlands so technically they are both playing at home but NYG will be designated the home team. Both head coaches Gase and Shurmur are trying to establish winning cultures so no adv here. The Nyj already have some substantial injuries. WR cluster injuries, RB Montgomery along with RB Bell who is trying to work his way back. In addition the offensive line so they are not going to risk injury here to Darnold.