Los Angeles Angels over Boston Red Sox 1st 5 inngs ONLY: This play has little to do with last night’s results although the LAA offense has underperformed all year. In their last 10 games vs. RH BA of 307 so it is coming on. Shoemaker team record when he starts is 4-11. He did get off to a slow start but that record is mainly due to lack of run support than pitching poorly. He has 7 quality starts in his last 8. Although it is a small sample size in 21 AB’s Bost has not got a hit off him.
Kansas City Royals over Philadelphia Phillies: Nola is a 7th overall pick in 2014. Based on the start he got off to this year all indications were he was ready. Not so fast confidence must be at an all-time low. Last 4 starts he has not made it past 4 inngs. Even the manger is deeming this a “very important” start. Another bad one could mean a trip back to the minors to get straightened out. After all you do not want to destroy the kid with such a high ceiling.
San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Despite the number we still get excellent value. You have read often how I talk about average mediocre pitchers who are pitching badly over many starts. When they are that far off form it takes more than 1 start to get back on form. Miller falls in that category. If Ariz were not paying him all this money he would be in the minors. A 310 BAA an ugly ratio of 40K vs. 31BB. His ERA is where it should be when you look under the hood at the other numbers. Conversely Cueto is having an excellent year. SF is 14-2 when he starts.
San Francisco Giants over Oakland Athletics: A number of factors keeping this line lower than it should be. Oak is going for a sweep in the 4 game home and home with SF. Oak has scored at least 6 runs in 6 straight. Bumgarner in an AL park will bat so SF will go with no DH.
Texas Rangers over New York Yankees 1st 5 inngs ONLY: Do not want to deal with the Yankees big 3 in the bullpen so we will play 1st half. Tex is 12-10 vs. LH NYY 10-14. We get a small to med adv on offense and a med adv in starting pitching providing us with value. I have this game at 1.31.
Saint Louis Cardinals over Seattle Mariners: Stl at 23-12 on the road has been much better than at home. Sea returns home from a 10 day road trip with no rest while Stl had yesterday off. Sea has lost 6 in a row and are 2-10 in their last 12. We will call the offenses equal small adv with rest and depth to the Stl bullpen. Lastly we get a medium adv in starting pitching. Martinez went through a 3 game slump but since than it has been 4 quality starts in a row. 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA. A current ERA very good at 3.17 who has actually pitched better than that with an XERA of 2.63.
Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers: Both teams are playing well. We will give Det a small adv on offense.
Arizona Diamondbacks over Colorado Rockies: We will call the offenses equal for this one. However we get large adv both in starting pitching and bullpen. Not only is the Col bullpen not good they are also tired.
Cleveland Indians over Tampa Bay Rays: Bauer is pitching every bit as good as Archer. The Clev bullpen is well rested after the complete game by Kluber yesterday.
San Francisco Giants over Pittsburgh Pirates: We get hot vs. cold in this one. SF is 9-1 in their last 10 Pitts is 5-16 in their last 21. Worst case we will give the starting pitching a wash.