New York Mets over San Diego Padres 1st 5 INNGS ONLY: We will rate the offenses equal for this match up. Nym closer Famillia will be away from the team so bullpens will also be rated equal hence the 1st half play only. The value is with the starting pitching. Wheeler is a former 1st round draft pick however that was 2009. He has an opportunity to a regular in the rotation but he must prove it. This year his ERA 4.24 on the surface is avg but going under the hood his numbers project to a 3.77. Mitchell was acquired from Nyy and is probably best served as a middle reliever.
New York Mets over San Diego Padres 1st 5 INNGS ONLY: Nym went 13 inngs yest so the bullpen is worn down along with the fact the majority of this value is in the starting pitching we will play this bet 1st half only. Nym are 4-1 vs. LH early on this year. Richard is a soft tossing 34 year old who has had 1 good start and that was vs. Mil first time out. He has given up 16 runs in his last 20 inngs. Over 90 ABs Nym are hitting 411 off him. DeGrom has started the year pitching as good as anyone on the staff. 32 inngs he already has 40K with only 8 BB.
Atlanta Braves over Cincinnati Reds 1st 5 Inngs ONLY: Both bullpens are erratic so we will eliminate them from the equation. McCarthy is a veteran who can navigate through a weak line up at least two times and that is all we are asking for this ticket. Mahle had a decent debut last year however this year he is off to a rough start. 21 inngs he has already given up 5 HRs along with a 313 BAA. I have this game at 1.35 giving us excellent value.
Detroit Tigers over Kansas City Royals: Det will be a 500 team at best this year. However Kc is a complete dumpster fire. They have the leagues worst bullpen. Kc is 3-5 vs LH. Kc is 1-9 in their last 10. Skoglund has been lit up in both his starts so far this year. Last year was not any better. RH are hitting 383 off him and Det has a very heavy RH line up. Liriano has nasty stuff always has. It is always about his control and pitch count. This year a 197 BAA however 14K and 8 BB. Against a weak KC line up 2-3 trips through should not be an issue.
Seattle Mariners over Texas Rangers: 44 year old big sexy Colon has two excellent starts under his big belt so far. In fact he took a perfect game into the 8th vs. Houst last time out. Left handed heavy Sea I expect will have its' way against the soft tossing Colon. Paxton K's avy more than 1 an inng. As long as Paxton maintains his control and manages his pitch count we have a wide gap in starting pitching. I will give a small adv in the bullpen to Sea and for argument wise rate the offenses equal. Sea offense will improve they have not gotten on track fully yet.
Pittsburgh Pirates over Miami Marlins 1st 5 Inngs ONLY: Pitts is off to a good start and they do have some talent in their starting line up. Pitts will have a med adv on offense. Bullpen wise although the closer Vazquez is looking good the 7th and 8th inng could be problem so we will play this bet 1st half only. The majority of the value for this one is with the gap in starting pitching. Taillon was the 2nd over all pick in 2010 and is continuing to show he is an ace in waiting. HE is off a complete game 110 pitch effort vs. Cinnci. 16K and only 2BB on the season so far.
Seattle Mariners over Oakland Athletics: Why should Oak be favored in Sea with Triggs vs Leake. Ans they should NOT! Worst case the starting pitching match-up is equal. Leake is not a strike out pitcher depends on his defense. He has shown some control issues early on but this is not his M.O. so I will consider this just a small sample size. Triggs is solid but again no better than Leake. Offenses are about equal relief pitching there is a small edge to Sea. Wrong team favored I have this game at 1.12 Sea we get Sea as a dog giving us excellent value.
Oakland Athletics over Los Angeles Dodgers 1st 5 Inngs ONLY: We would have at least a small disadv in the bullpen so we will play this first half only. Ryu has not pitched since Apr 2 when he was not in good form. Tonight he will be moved up a day with Wood getting food poisoning. I do not expect him to be sharp tonight. Manaea has been solid in his 1st 2 years bit this year early on he has taken another step forward. A 137 BAA with 11K and only 1BB. I will rate these offenses equal however right now they are both struggling. I have this 1st half at -1.20 giving us excellent value.
New York Mets over Miami Marlins: Very impressed at how well deGrom is throwing the ball early in the year. His mechanics are free and easy with a BAA of 190 with 12K 4BB. Smith is from the Mets organization so they will know him well. His stuff is not bad however 12K vs 9BB he has control and mechanical issues. We get a med adv in starting pitching along with med adv in offense and bullpens as well. Nym have won 6 in a row. Although again like last night it is very early put this game in July you are looking at a line of 2.20+ even on the road.
Houston Astros over Minnesota Twins: It is going to be cold in Minn if this game gets off. I will side with the power pitching of Verlander over Lynn. Lynn mechanics are still off walking way more than striking out. We will rate these offenses equal with a med adv in starting pitching and in the bullpen giving us the value. If this game were played later in the year with the same parameters we would be laying 1.80+