This week I invite you to the website click on Betting Tips and read the newest article titled MLB The Marathon Begins. In addition if you click the link below you can listen to part 4 of 4 from an interview conducted with a line maker at Pinnacle.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6u2tFS-V_s Part 4
If you missed any of the previous parts of this 4 stage interview you can find the links in the Grapevine section of the website.
With a 162 game schedule for MLB it represents obviously the longest sports season with the largest menu of any sport we handicap. Given it produces in shear numbers the most plays of any of the sports we handicap it yearly has the most dollars bet which means it has the greatest potential impact on our yearly ROI.
Be aware that the big conference NCAAB tournaments get going this upcoming week. Most days will have potential noon est start times and games go off all through the day and night. Stay Tuned.
The longer a season has progressed in any sport the more you will read the phrase in my game analysis “reputation vs. reality”. This relates to analyzing stale numbers. If you are at game 60 in a given season for a team why would you consider stats in your analysis that relate to games 1-30 etc. They are meaningless. Year to date stats carry no weight.
We have been rather streaky the last few weeks which is not the norm. On Saturday Feb 12 we went 4-0. We moved that mini run to 9-3. On Saturday Feb 19 we went 0-5. We added 4 more losses to that ugliness having lost 9 in a row as of the end of Friday. So our record moved to a 9-12. Yesterday saw us go 3-2 to put our current record heading in to Sunday at 12-14. Nothing to be excited about however we are well over 55% since November 2010 and that is something to be very excited about. Consistency!
Unfortunately we took the collar yesterday going 0-5. A combination of some bad reads and 2 games losing by a bucket. Regardless for most of you are already aware these days are inevitable. No matter how hard I work; per year on average we will have 3 or 4 of these type of days. It is obviously not fun when it happens but I accept it and move on.
~Odds Makers Motive~ A 4-0 Saturday has the momentum right where we want it as we head into the last day of week #7 of our betting year. Next week we will do another R.O.I. check.
Pop quiz : Do you know what happens today ? If you answered pitchers and catchers report to spring training go to the head of the class. Always a good sign that warmer weather is close. I am ready for opening day NOW ! How about you ?
~BAD TEAMS~
A 3-2 Saturday has us in a profitable position for the week as we head into the last day of week #6 in the 2011 sporting year.
We have added a new feature to the website. If you go to the Today’s Picks page and review the grid where the picks are posted you will notice a new column at the end called Analysis.
ROI check/ Do not be a SUCKER !
We ran into a little bump on Saturday. The 0-3 represented our worst day in over 4 months.These types of days are bound to happen from time to time. In fact as you know I always tell it like it is there will be days and weeks over the course of the year much worse than that. Just as important of how you handle the winning streaks is how do you also handle the bad days. I can honestly tell you no one can tell in my everyday life whether I am on a prolonged winning or losing streak. My personality will not change.
Suckers need action. If it is a “big “ high profile game the sucker has to bet it and usually for a large % of his bankroll.
Pros wait until an opportunity provides value. That value can be on the Super Bowl or on a game during the regular season with the 2 worst teams in the NBA. Value is value and it does not matter where the money is earned from.
Value is a favorable variance between the books line and the handicapping line you have set for the game regardless of high a profile the match up may be.