Ottawa Senators over Calgary Flames 1st 60 Minutes ONLY: This is the last night of games in the NHL before the all-star break. This break cannot come quickly enough for Cal. Coach is ragging on the team they have lost 4 in a row and are 3-7 in their last 10. There is talent on this team but combine bad chemistry with a new coach and weak goaltending you get a team at crossroads. Condon has been a savior for Ott with Anderson out. Condon comes in with a 918 save % and has a substantial advantage over Elliott sitting at 891.
Chicago Blackhawks over Tampa Bay Lightning 1st 60 Minutes ONLY: Tb will pay game 5 of a long 6 game road trip. Tb is 2-8 in their last 10. Injuries inconsistent play and a disappointing year describe Tb. Chic is 7-2 in their last 10 and are rounding into form as yet another year to be a cup contender. Chic has done an excellent job this year given the salary cap of introducing some very talented young players that are making major contributions. I have this game at 1.72 giving us excellent value.
New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers: Pitts is really struggling in the red zone. You cannot beat or cover against NE if you cannot get it consistently in the end zone because you know they are going to. Pitts also has the flu going through the team. Than you have Brown giving NE bulletin board material. Next you have a NE team that actually had an off game last week they were not sharp and despite this they win by 18. I have this game at 8.0 giving us excellent value.
Handicapping is a constantly evolving process. Year by year season by season even game by game. Rules change market perceptions change sports book strategies change. The only constant is change.
Some people are under the impression handicapping is nothing more than a number crunching formula driven exercise which punches out plays. Nothing could be further from the truth. If the better team or better pitcher won and covered every game we would all be rich.
Washington Capitals over Dallas Stars 1st 60 Minutes ONLY: Again we get a favorable line because the back up Grubauer will go tonight. No he is not as good as Holtby but he does come in with a 927 save % and he is better than Lehtonen sitting at 902 added by the very weak Dall defense. Wash has scored 5 or more goals in 5 straight games. Wash is well aware that they have had horrible results in Dall however that is irrelevant overall and it has already been factored in the line. Dall is 4-11 vs. top 10 teams. Wash is 10-0-2 in their last 12.
Chicago Blackhawks over Boston Bruins 1st 60 Minutes ONLY: Chic has just as good a chance of winning this game as Bost. Therefore at this return we get outstanding value. Part of the reason for this line Darling with get the start over Crawford. Crawford has been struggling Darling has a better save % than Rask or Crawford. So for us this is a positive not a negative. Bost is not in good form trade rumors and the firing of Julien are swirling all over the club. Bost is 3-11 vs. Top 10 teams.
Washington Wizards over Memphis Grizzlies: The markets have not caught up to how well Wash is playing at home. Wash has won 12 in a row s/u 17-6 overall and 15-8 ATS. These 2 teams battled in Mem to OT on Oct 30th. Now we get to spot less than home court in the rematch to cash. Led by Beal and Wall backcourt Wall has taken his game to the next level. This match will be offense vs. defense. Off % Wash is ranked 5th Mem is dead last 30th. I fully expect especially at home for Wash to dictate the pace of which Mem will not be able to outscore Wash.
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Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons: There is no denying how explosive the Atl offense and they have an adv medium size over Sea in this area. However Wilson is healthier than he has been all year. RB Prosise who will be a game time decision along with Rawls should be able to move the ball and control the clock keeping Ryan off the field as much as possible. We are getting substantial points with the 5th ranked defense even with Thomas out. We are also going up against the 25th ranked Atl defense. If Sea is able to keep Atl under 28 they have a serious chance to win this game outright.
Manhattan Jaspers over Rider Broncs: Especially early on in the season records can be very misleading. Rider is 11-5 while Manhattan is 6-11. However Rider has the 323rd ranked schedule they have played nobody even in the top 50. There is a price to pay for scheduling most of your games against easy teams. Despite this Rider is just 11-5. This line indicates on a neutral court Rider would be favored by 3 or more and that is just wrong. These teams are very evenly matched throw in home court and we get excellent value.