New Orleans Saints over Arizona Cardinals: Both teams are now playing out the string. Brees is coming off 2 bad games in a row and I am expecting a bounce back from him. This will be the #1 offense vs. the #1 defense. Ariz offensive line is a mess there is no protection for Palmer and now he has lost Floyd who was released this week. In addition Ariz has cluster injuries on defense. The points offered provide a nice cushion but I expect NO to win outright.
Tennessee Titans over Kansas City Chiefs: Kc is a very conservative offense. They love to run the ball. Tenn is ranked 3rd in defending the run while with Murray on the other side of the ball they are ranked 3rd in rushing offense going up against the 27th ranked Kc rush defense. Kc will also be without LB Johnson a big loss not full reflected in the line. Tenn just held Den at home to 18 yards rushing. Kc has abig game against Den on deck. Kc have won 3 in a row however the total point differential 12 so they are not exactly blowing people out.
Detroit Lions over New York Giants: Concern over the finger of Stafford has an impact on this line. Concern of how many close games Det plays an issue but not for me. First of all they are winning those games. Det is 9-1 in their last 10. We are not spotting points we are getting them big difference. Det seemed to struggle last week against a bad Chic team at home and that as well has an impact on this line. The Det defense has not given up more than 20 points in 7 weeks.
You are never as hot as you think you are. Your luck is never as bad as you think it is. You are never due to win. Now that we have this out of the way we can get to the crux of the issue. Gamblers think when they get hot they are invulnerable. They think the laws of probability do not apply to them.
UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns over Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: Virtual home game for ULL. ULL finished strong down the stretch and this bowl game will be a reward for them. ULL has a weak passing game but they can control this match up with stud running back McGuire. S.Miss has been inconsistent at best this year. Higher expectations it has been a disappointing year despite the big numbers Sr QB Mullens has put up. This is a lot of points to be offered for a team that may not even care about the end result.
Atlanta Hawks over Charlotte Hornets: Both teams played last night. Charl lost in Bost without Walker. He will be back tonight. However for Charl this will be game 5 and last of a road trip. They have lost the 4 to date. This will be their 4th game in 6 nights and they are 0-5 ATS with zero days’ rest. Atl has struggled badly but seem to be regaining the form from the start of the year. In a big revenge spot last night they went in and beat Tor. A let down tonight is possible but I do not see it at home. They had the 2 days off prior to last night and Atl is 5-1 ATS with zero days’ rest.
San Diego State Aztecs over Houston Cougars: This will be the final game for Houst QB Ward and his profile alone is one piece that has Houst overvalued. Houst had their sights on a bigger bowl game so motivation and disappointment are questionable. In addition given the line they are being asked to win by a margin. Coach Herman has left for Texas Applewhite takes over. SdSt has Chapman at QB he is not asked to win games but to manage them and he does a good job of just that. RB Pumphrey has a chance if he gains 108 yards to be the all-time career rushing leader for the FBS.
Calgary Flames over Tampa Bay Lightning 1st 60 minutes ONLY: The market continues to overrate TB especially without Stamkos. TB is 2-8 in their last 10. The market also continues to underrate Cal. Cal was turning the corner before Johnny hockey came back. Johnson has supplanted Elliot as the #1 goalie. Cal got off to a slow start but that is a thing of the past. Cal gas won 6 in a row and 8-2 in their last 10. I have this game at 1.55 giving us excellent value.
Minnesota Wild over Florida Panthers 1st 60 minutes ONLY: Minn has won 4 in a row. Dubnyk is playing the best hockey of his career. A 946 save % giving up only 6 goals in those 4 wins. Boudreau has this team playing very well and they still remain under the radar. These prices will not be available much longer. Flor is 3-7 in their last 10. Flor is 3-8 vs. top 10 teams. I have this game at 1.59 giving us excellent value.
Arizona Cardinals over Miami Dolphins: Ariz attempts to keep its slim playoff chances alive. Both teams have stud running backs however that are where the similarities end. Mia has the 30th ranked rush defense and Ariz has balance on offense. Ariz is 9th in pass offense so it is not like Mia will be able to crowd the line and just stop Johnson. Ajayi has also established himself as a premier running back. However Ariz has the 2nd ranked overall defense 11th against the rush.