It is easy to draw conclusions off of small sample sizes. Be aware this leads to BIG mistakes. How many times have you asked yourself how can a team look so good one night and then so bad the very next night against a weaker opponent?
The answer is easier than you think. We are in the business of predicting outcomes of sporting events played by humans. Humans by nature are unpredictable especially in the short term. The shorter the time spans the more volatile the results will be. Everyone has off nights.
Marquette Golden Eagles over Wisconsin Badgers: Pace will be a key in this game. Who controls it wins. Wisc will want to play at a slow pace Marq strong offensively weak defense will want to play fast. In a game I fully expect Marq to win outright at home the points offered give us a nice cushion. I have this game at pick. Wisc has played 1 true road game losing at Creighton 79-67. Marq has strong guard play with Carter and Cheatham as well as size in the middle with senior Fischer.
New Jersey Devils over Montreal Canadians 1st 60 minutes ONLY: Very tough going against Price but at this line in this situation it is worth the risk. Nj has played the 8th ranked schedule while Mtl comes in at 24. Mtl comes back from a west coast 5 game road trip they have not played at home in 2 weeks. Add to this their injuries at center with Desharnais and leading scorer Galchenyuk and we get outstanding value on the visitor.
Milwaukee Bucks over Portland Trailblazers: Under the radar Mil is making strides. In their last game they took SA to the last shot. Port is playing well 3 wins in a row. Port looks for more balance very guard dependent with Lillard and McCollum. Prior to the loss to SA Mil had won 4 in a row. These 2 teams are fairly even offensively. However on the defensive end we get a large adv. Points allowed per game Mil 10th Port 28th def fg % Port 23rd Mil 1st. Rebounding Mil checks in at 7th Port checks in at 21st.
Calgary Flames over Dallas Stars 1st 60 Minutes ONLY: Dall can score goals no denying that. However defensively and in net we have med sized adv as a dog. Johnson will play tonight and his 928 save % over Elliot. Lehtonen comes in at 891. Cal is healthier than they have been all year with the return of Gaudreau. Cal has won 3 in a row and are 8-3-1 in their last 12. Great value on the road team where I have this game at pick.
Houston Cougars over Arkansas Razorbacks: Getting 3 points over home court simply gives us excellent value. This is an overreaction to Houst getting blown out at LSU 84-65. In the only true test Ark has had they lost at Minn 85-71. These 2 teams grade out fairly evenly.
New York Jets over Indianapolis Colts: Yes Luck will be back from his concussion. Big deal the supporting cast is very weak. No ground game Gore is well past his prime. Hilton is not 100%. Indo comes in with the 30th ranked defense incl 30th against the pass. Not asking Fitz to win this game just do not make mistakes. Get the ball to Marshall on the outside and hand the ball to a resurgent Forte. Indi has played the 27th ranked schedule while NYJ come in at 5th making the gap between these teams nonexistent.
New York Islanders over Detroit Red Wings 1st 60 Minutes ONLY: NYI after a slow start have won 3 in a row. Questionable what the ceiling is so far for this team. However they have just beat Pitts and Wash they take a step down tonight. Det depth is being severely challenged by a plethora of injuries. Now with an early start time they will be playing their 4th game in 6 nights. They played their hearts out last night in Pitts. Det had a 3-1 lead heading into the 3rd and went on to lose 5-3 running out of gas. Tough to see them competing against a now confident rested NYI team at home.
Detroit Lions over New Orleans Saints: Rarely are we able to take back this amount of points in a game where the dog has as good a shot as this to win outright. I have this game at 4 giving us excellent value. There is no getting around how good the NO offense is especially at home. That attracts the public money. However the NO defense is equally bad and Det should be able to control the clock with their short and diversified passing game. In other words expect a high scoring game but eventually that NO defense will wear down not that is was any good to begin with.
Over the next month the college football bowl games will be played culminating with the playoff format to determine a champion.
Handicapping bowl games is a totally different beast than handicapping games during the regular season.
Look to play ON double digit underdogs in the minor bowl games. If you are a big favorite in a game like this it indicates more was expected from you this season and this bowl game is a disappointment. The larger the underdog in games like this the greater the motivation and reward to actually be playing in a bowl game.