Los Angeles Dodgers over Pittsburgh Pirates: This line climbed a little too high to make it an official bet so here it is on the home page. Pitts is 8-12 vs. LH. Pitts is about as avg a team as you can find call it mediocre. Kingham will get his first start since 06-09. He has pitched well and worst case we will rate the starting pitching equal. Wood got off to a slow start but is in good form now. We get a small adv on offense and also in the bullpen giving us the value.
Atlanta Braves over Saint Louis Cardinals: Markets like to bet against a home team getting swept which is the situation here but that concept has no basis of success. Flotynewicz is pitching at a high level. The only flaw in his numbers although he is striking out more than 1 an inng his pitch count rises preventing him from pitching deep in games. However for this match up we have a small adv in the bullpen so it should not be an issue today. Gant is also pitching well in limited opportunities. HE has bounced between the big club and AAA Memphis.
Washington Nationals-Philadelphia Phillies Over: Hot humid day in Phil the ball will be travelling in this small ballpark. 2 mediocre bullpens should be required to get many outs with these 2 starters. Velasquez with a smooth trip will go 6 likely to give up at least 3 runs. Hellickson comes off the DL from a hamstring injury. His rehab start was bad. The Wash offense has underperformed for awhile now but broke out last night scoring 17. I have this game at 10.0 giving us excellent value.
New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox: Big series begins tonight in the Bronx. I will rate the SP equal although I am not pro of either starter. That is not where the value is. CC will be operating on an extra day rest. Worst case I will look for this game to be tied going into the late innings. I will also rate the offenses equal. The value for this game is in the bullpen where Nyy hold a med adv. This adv tonight will be even more pronounced with Kimbrel not likely available for Bost. Look with each starter to go 5-6 inngs and that is when the strong Nyy bullpen will take over.
Colorado Rockies-San Francisco Giants Over: Day game in SF with a quick turnaround after a night game yesterday. The ball travels much better in the day at this ballpark. There will be a slight wind blowing out to center. Gray strikes out many however SF has seen him twice already this year and has hit him very well. Behind Gray is a terrible Col bullpen. Col spent a lot of money to improve the bullpen in the off season including sighing Davis but it has not worked out.
Boston Red Sox over Los Angeles Angels: La is 3-7 in their last 10. Heaney is a good pitcher solid numbers but his home away dichotomy is not fully factored in this line in my opinion. Porcello is back to his Cy Young form. An Era of 3.44 when you go under the hood he is even pitching better with an XERA of 2.89. Bost vs. Lh at home is hitting 279 and in their last 10 it is 302. We get a small adv in SP a small adv in offense and a med adv in the bullpen. I have this game at 1.52 giving us excellent value.
Philadelphia Phillies over New York Yankees: Any other team with the same players not named Nyy this line would not be where it is at. Cessa will get a spot start after being out for 2 months with a strained oblique. He is probably long term best suited for middle relief. He will be on a 70-80 pitch count. The only reason he is getting this start Nyy are giving CC extra rest for the weekend series against Bost. Eflin is in excellent form. 4-0 a 2.28 ERA over his last 4 starts. His under the hood numbers are just a good with an XERA season to date of 3.43.
New York Yankees over New York Mets: Minimal home field adv so not going to be over concerned with the road juice. Nym have been destroyed by injuries. They are 1-9 last 10 and have lost 8 in a row. Nym have batted 181 vs. RH in their last 10. Nyy are 9-1 in their last 10. They are 12-1 when Severino starts. Severino is right there with Verlander for top pitcher in the AL so far. A 2.20 ERA his numbers are even better than that with an XERA of 1.94. Lugo will get a spot start with Sydergaard unable to go. Lugo can be effective in short stints.
Atlanta Braves over Baltimore Orioles: Atl is 7-3 while Balt is 2-8 in their last 10.
Pittsburgh Pirates over Cincinnati Reds 1st 5inngs ONLY: We will give a small adv in bullp