St. Bonaventure Bonnies #739 over Florida Gators: Flor all year has played to their level of competition. This will be only their 2nd game in 12 days. I expect Flor to get off to a slow start. St. Bonn participated in the play in game and beat UCLA 65-58. They will not be intimidated by the bright lights. St. Bonn shoots the 3 and free throws better than Flor. St Bonn has dynamic guard play with Mobley and Adams. Those 2 did not even play well and they still beat UCLA. St. Bonn is the type of dog in this range that you look for. Possible s/u upset possibility.
Texas A/M Aggies #868 over Providence Friars: Give all the credit in the world to Prov and how they battled in the Big East tourney. 3 consecutive O.T. games losing to Vill in that 3rd game. That run simply has this team overrated. Even with a week off from that physical emotional grind a team that lacks depth will have trouble gearing it up again. There could also not be a worse opponent for Prov to have to face. Tex A/M is a similar team to Prov style wise they just do it better with more depth. Tex A/M is a big physical team that rotates players in and out with little impact.
USC Trojans #880 Pac 12 Tourney over Oregon Ducks: Just because a team will be playing a 3rd game in 3 days does not automatically indicate play against in conf tourneys. However in this case with Org there is more. Off 2 draining games that they won by 2 points each time the Wed game going to OT this will take a toll. Conversely USC is off a relatively easy win over Org St. Thurs night. As I always say you need numerous compelling reasons to play on or against a team. Org will be playing their 5th game tonight in 9 days.
North Carolina Tar Heels #667 over Miami Florida Hurricanes: ACC conf tourney game. 6.0 is the go number on N.Car. N Car played on this court last night defeating Syr easy 78-59. Not expecting any fatigue issues for N.Car in fact just the opposite allowing the team to get familiar with the neutral site. Mi-Flor had a bye. N.Car played the 2nd toughest schedule in all of college basketball this year. Their backcourt is talented and experienced. Mi-Flor has a weak defense that can be exploited by N.Car. On Feb 2th at home as a 10 point fav N.Car did just that putting up 88 points.
Kentucky Wildcats #529 over Florida Gators: It was a very young team that started the year for Kent. They have matured and are being to buy in to what Calipari is selling. This team is peaking at the right time. Kent will have a height adv in this one and even more pronounced now that F Bassett has been ruled out for Flor. Flor will have a tough enough time simply getting the s/u win let alone covering. I have this game at 2.0 giving us excellent value.
Boise St. Broncos #547 over San Diego St. Aztecs: WE get to take back points with what I consider the better team. We definitely have a substantial adv on the boards. Forward leader Pope has been suspended now there is a chance he will be re-instated tonight but that has already been fully encompassed in this line. B St. is well rested having played 1 game in the last 11 days. I expect the s/u winner of this game to be in doubt to the final possessions with the points offered providing a substantial cushion. I have this game at 1.5 giving us excellent value.
Nebraska Cornhuskers #853 over Illinois Fighting Illini: The markets continue to undervalue Neb. Neb 6 s/u and Ats wins in a row. On Jan 15th Neb won at home as a 4.5 fav 64-63. This result is having an impact on the line. Finke had 16 for Ill and it is unlikely he will go again today. Secondly Ill outrebounded Neb 44-27. I do not expect that to happen again today either. Ill struggles on offense and if they are not creating turnovers this issue becomes magnified. Neb is cool under pressure they take care of the ball.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish #713 over North Carolina Tar Heels: N.Car will play their 3rd game in 5 days. On Thurs we lost fading them against Duke when Duke went away from what they had done successfully in the 1st half and their inexperience showed. On Sat N.Car travelled to Nc St. and won. I am expecting the focus and energy level to be somewhat low tonight as they face N.Dame. N.Car lacks depth. Getting a win s/u vs. winning by double digits is to different issues especially when you are weak defensively do not create turnovers and have trouble defending the 3 point line.
Washington Huskies #675 over Oregon State Beavers: This line opened at 4.0 and has been bet up predictably to where now we have value. Thursday Wash was getting blown out on the road at Org while at home Org St was beating up on Wash St. Those results have caused an overreaction today. Wash is very good at causing turnovers and plying defense. Wash checks in having played the 70th strength of schedule Org St is 114th. Org St. will have a tough enough time simply winning this game s/u with the inflated points offered providing a substantial cushion.
Duke Blue Devils #549 over North Carolina Tar Heels: Early money today has all come in on N.Car. Duke starts 4 freshmen yes they are talented but this will be their 1st go around on the road in this vicious rivalry. That will not deter me from betting Duke. Duke is 7-3 in conf play N.Car is 6-5. The market is down on Duke given their road loss Sat to St. Johns. That loss does not look as bad as it did given St. Johns just went in and beat #1 Vill on the road. Secondly I see that game as a wake up call for Duke. N.Car is a good team not a great team.