Oklahoma Sooners over Florida Gators: We have a ranked high profile team against an unranked team at home. That alone has these points inflated. However there is more. Okl is young but they are talented. This is a team on the rise but their record is misleading. Numerous close out losses including in OT. They also lost 4 games when their SR point guard Woodard was out. Flor is strong def and this bet is not so much going against them but on Okl. Flor also has stretches on offense where they struggle. If this game is close down the stretch Okl also has he advantage in free throw shooting.
Manhattan Jaspers over Rider Broncs: Especially early on in the season records can be very misleading. Rider is 11-5 while Manhattan is 6-11. However Rider has the 323rd ranked schedule they have played nobody even in the top 50. There is a price to pay for scheduling most of your games against easy teams. Despite this Rider is just 11-5. This line indicates on a neutral court Rider would be favored by 3 or more and that is just wrong. These teams are very evenly matched throw in home court and we get excellent value.
Oklahoma State Cowboys over Baylor Bears: Bay ranked #3. 14-0 overall and 9-0 at home s/u. All of above along with Okl St. coming off 2 bad losses has this line higher than it should be. I have this game at 9.5 giving us excellent value. Bay is only 3-2 ATS at home. Bay is coming off a tough 2 point win at home as a 9 point favorite against Iowa St. No doubt Bay has a big adv on defense in this one. However it is rare you find a favorite at this size who will actually want to slow the pace. OKl St. has the best offense in the Big 12 lead by guard Evans. No I do not expect Okl St.
Miami-Ohio Red Hawks over Northern Illinois Huskies: Simply the wrong team is favored I have this game at pick. Mi-Oh has more depth and a better shooting %. This line indicates on a neutral court NIll should be favored by around 6 and that is just wrong. Neither of these teams have played anyone of substance yet given schedule rank for NIll is 288 and for Mi-Oh 327. N.Ill is 2-3 on the road s/u while Mi-Oh is 7-2 at home. These two teams have a tendency to play close games making the points available huge.
Toledo Rockets over Loyola-Chicago Ramblers: Prime example why W/L records can be so misleading especially prior to conference play. Loy-Chic is 10-2. They are well overrated having played the 290th ranked schedule to date. Tol is just 5-6 and despite Taylor probably not going tonight they are underrated. Tol has played the 105th ranked schedule. In addition they have already played 5 O.T. games having gone 2-3 s/u. I have Tol at 3.0 giving us excellent value.
Marquette Golden Eagles over Wisconsin Badgers: Pace will be a key in this game. Who controls it wins. Wisc will want to play at a slow pace Marq strong offensively weak defense will want to play fast. In a game I fully expect Marq to win outright at home the points offered give us a nice cushion. I have this game at pick. Wisc has played 1 true road game losing at Creighton 79-67. Marq has strong guard play with Carter and Cheatham as well as size in the middle with senior Fischer.
Houston Cougars over Arkansas Razorbacks: Getting 3 points over home court simply gives us excellent value. This is an overreaction to Houst getting blown out at LSU 84-65. In the only true test Ark has had they lost at Minn 85-71. These 2 teams grade out fairly evenly.
Villanova Wildcats over North Carolina Tar Heels: Vill has already slayed 2 giants in Okla and Kan. This is a fairly even match-up. However it is the 3 point shooting of Vill that carries the night for me and gives us value.
Syracuse Orange over North Carolina Tar Heels: UNC have all the hype they are the #1 seed and favored to win it all legitimately so. However at this number we have plenty of room to just cover. This will be the best defense that UNC will have faced. UNC has not even been challenged in the tourny yet. It is very tough to beat the same team 3 times in the same year never mind in this case having to do it by double digits.
Duke Blue Devils over Oregon Ducks: The Pac 12 was vastly overrated and given that Org as a #1 seed also got over seeded. Out of the 7 Pac 12 teams Org is the only 1 left in the tourney. So we get a good amount of points with the ACC vs. the Pac 12.