Archived Picks

Cincinnati Reds vs Saint Louis Cardinals

Saint Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati Reds: Small adv across the board throw in home field and we have value. Wainwright is well paced his prime on the downside of his career but he knows how to pitch goes deep into games. He is in excellent form right now. This is not a fade against Castillo he is pitching well and can certainly K much better than Wainwright. However if this game is tight/tied in the late inngs adv still goes to Stl who has a small adv as well in the bullpen. Cinci is 2-6 when Castillo starts while Stl is 5-1 when Wainwright starts.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings: Keep the points I expect Gb to win outright. Gb had a low turnover of roster. For sure they could use some help at the receiver position to compliment Rodgers but they still have Adams and a strong run game led by Jones. Yes Rodgers is on the downside of his career but he is still effective and I expect Gb to have a very good defense with a strong pass rush. This leads us to Minn and specifically Cousins pressure him as we know he is prone to errors.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays over New York Yankees: Just the name Nyy will cause you to pay a premium. Look at the line up with their substantial injuries they are no where near at this point the team they were supposed to be. We will rate the bullpens equal for this one. Both have been overused and mediocre at best. Tor hits lefties better than righties and will face 1 tonight in Happ. We will have a small adv on offense. Starting pitching we will have a med adv.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: We get small adv across the board creating the value. Sp relief and offense. Cueto is well passed his prime and he just pitched a good game vs. Ariz but his deception gets him by. Although his ERA is 4.75 when you go under the hood his XERA is 3.49. Young is what he is probably best suited for middle relief. Ariz is not in good form playing out the string while SF still has some hope. I have this game at 1.44 giving us excellent value.

Arkansas St. Red Wolves vs Memphis Tigers

Arkansas St Red Wolves #237 over Memphis Tigers: If you are looking for defense you came to the wrong game. Mem has the dynamic duo of Qb White and Wr Coxie. Ark St is bad on defense. However Ark ST has their own threats with a 2 QB combo of Bonner and Hatcher. They are backed by RB Murray and WR Adams. Ark St. returns 13 starters from last year. Ark St has had the benefit of more practice time. Big loss for Mem when star RB Gainwell opted out. I priced this game at 17.0 giving us excellent value. 

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat

Miami Heat over Milwaukee Bucks Adj series line: We won with Mia in game 1. We sat out game 2 hindsight always 20-20 should not have. There were factors that turned it only to a lean. Regardless we will jump on Mia now to win the series. Obviously Mia just has to win 2 Mil 4. If a BIG if Mia wins today it is virtually over. I do not think Mil can win 4 straight so even if this goes 7 we will have some leverage laying off options as the series progresses. All the pressure now is on Mil. This is not a team that has performed well in this spot.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox: Only specify the Tor pitcher. Walker made his debut and it was a good one with Tor. He should be even more comfortable in his 2nd start but it will be a tougher line up with Bost. Perez is battling a blister issue his start was pushed back a day. We will take a small adv in SP. We will have a med adv out of the bullpen and we will rate the offenses equal.

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Miami Heat over Milwaukee Bucks: We cashed game 1 of this series and will not hesitate to come back on it at virtually the same line. We have 2 issues in particular creating the value for us this time. 1 again will be the rep profile of Mil with Giannis expected to go to the finals. 2 is the zig zag theory team losses a game especially a favorite that they will bounce back the following game. Perhaps Mil wins this game however that still does not mean they cover.

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks: Mil is the premier team in the east favored to go to the finals. I mention this because that means you will pay a premium each time you decide to bet on them. Mia swept an underrated Ind team while Mil beat in 5 an undermanned injured Orl team. My concern for Mia they have not played in a week. Adebayo is a plus defender look for him and Butler to force Giannis to the outside taking away the drives to the basket as much as possible. Mia is also loaded with young 3 point sharpshooters.

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox

Washington Nationals over Boston Red Sox: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. However could be plentiful tonight with a total of 11.5. Sanchez has been around for a long time. He has not pitched well. However he had a good start last time out vs. Mia that he can build off of. He is a positive regression candidate. Mazza will get called up again for this game. He has 1 start and 1 relief appearance this year both against Nyy. He was drafted 2011 27th round he is not a prospect and his numbers are bad.