Archived Picks



New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies over New York Mets: Both teams have high home/away dichotomies. Nym after a really hot extended run to get back into playoff contention have cooled off again. Nym have lost 6 in a row after losing at home to Chic yesterday. Phil was off so small adv to Phil here given how late it is in the season. Both bullpens are erratic mediocre at best so we will call that equal. Small adv for Phil on offense given current form and a small adv in starting pitching.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers over Kansas City Chiefs: Gb played in Winn on Thurs. Kc played at home Sat so 1st adv Gb. Gb has a competition for QB #2 Kizer vs. Boyle. They also have a competition left for RB #3. With Henne out Shurmur is clearly #2 with Kc and Litton #3. I prefer the late Qb rotation of GB over Kc. I have this game at 1.65 Gb win for the value.

UCLA Bruins vs Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati Bearcats #134 over UCLA Bruins: I will go against the market money for this one. This line opened at 4.5 and is now down to 3.0. Cinci is simply the better team. Last year Cinci went west and as a 14.5 point dog beat UCLA outright in game 1. Chip Kelly and UCLA will likely take another step forward after a down year but this is a bad match up on the road to start the year for them. QB Thompson-Robinson had an up and down freshman year. Cinci returns 14 starters from last years 11 win team. They have exp and an excellent pass defense.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Given the venue we will rate the offenses equal. This line is lower than it should be in part because of the run differential of these 2 teams. Ariz should have a better record SF should have a worse record. However these teams are presently tied in the standings and with a med adv in starting pitching and Ariz best hotter Peralta out more than makes up for the run differential. We also have a small adv in the bullpen giving us excellent value given I have this game at 1.39.

Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions

Buffalo Bills over Detroit Lions: Buff has looked sharp so far in the pre-season. The opposite could be said for Det. Buff has outscored Ind and Car combine 51-30. Det has issues especially on the offensive line. They will be going up against a very good Buff defense who for the most part was together last year. Stafford has not taken a snap yet in pre-season. Given Det also has a new off co-ord that is an issue. I do not see Stafford playing much. Coming off an injury from last year and issues protecting the QB they are not going to take any unnecessary risks.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Some of the value deals with the public betting against a road team going for a 4 game sweep. Although it is not common every game stands on its’ own for me it is a non-factor. The Sf offense has been streaky all year. At this time they are hot. Regardless for this game we will rate the offenses equal. Bullpen we will have a med adv. In addition I fully expect Ariz to need more inngs from their bullpen than Sf. Starting pitching we have a small adv. Bumgarner expectedly has better home than away numbers but he is still pitching well.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Both teams are 3.5 games behind the Cubs for the 2nd wild card. Based on current form we will rate the offenses equal. Sf will have a med adv in the bullpen. Sf wil also have a med adv with the starting pitching. Leake will make his 3rd start for Ariz coming over from Sea. A 280 BAA and having given up 31 HR’s he is more of an inngs eater than anything else at this stage of his career. Samardzija is having quietly an excellent bounce back year. He is getting stronger as the season as gone on.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds over Chicago Cubs: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. Chic has been a bad road team all year sitting at 22-35. We have a small adv in the bullpen and a med adv in starting pitching producing the value. Castillo is a true ace with a 188 BAA. Lester has the odd good game but he is definitely on the down side a case of reputation vs reality. A 287 BAA Cinnci has historically hit him well. I have this game at 1.36 giving us excellent value.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves over Miami Marlins: Two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum and two young pitchers as well. Mia is 2-8 in their last 10. Atl is 15-5 when Soroka starts. Soroka had a brief swoon in July but has caught a second wind actually getting stronger. Alcantara numbers show he is running out of gas. You really have to string hits together to score off of Soroka. He does not walk people and has only given up 7 HR in 121 inngs of work. Alcantara has 93K but 63BB.

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros over Baltimore Orioles: Sometimes the obvious play is the right play. Value is value. Miley only gets in trouble when he nibbles too much. Bundy is vulnerable to the long ball against this team likely the most complete top to bottom in MLB that is trouble. Houst is 9-1 in their last 10 as they have got healthy. Miley is pitching at an elite level and although he is not flashy with big strike out totals he is not priced as such. Med adv across the board starting pitching, offense and bullpen. I have this game priced at 2.67 giving us excellent value.

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