Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox: These 2 teams and pitchers faced each other on 07/28 with Clev winning 4-3. Clev is 8-6 and have not come close to hitting well yet. Their success the deep talented starting pitching of which Civale fits right in. High strike outs good control and not susceptible to the long ball. He is a particular tough match up for Chic with their heavy right hitting line up. Chic really misses Anderson to set the table and they also be without Encarnacion tonight. Cease is still a work in progress and gives up an alarming number of long balls.
Toronto Blue Jays over Atlanta Braves: We will give small adv to Atl in relief and offense. However the offensive gap is minimal with both Adams and Albies out for Atl. The med adv creating the value is in the starting pitching. Toussaint is in the rotation because Foltynewicz was dropped. Toussaint spent July in quarantine. Toussaint is past the point of prospect a 1st round 2014 pick from Ariz. Pearson is an ace in waiting. A 2017 1st round pick for Tor. Pearson made his debut in Wash a very solid 5 innngs.
Washington Nationals over New York Mets: Value is value even at this line. 2 aging hurlers 1 severely in decline Porcello 1 still raking up the K’s Scherzer. We get a large adv in starters. We also get a small adv in the bullpen. Offense we will call equal however Soto again expected to debut tonight while for Nym Cano is out McNeil and Rosario questionable and we all know Cespedes has left the building. I have this game at 2.38 giving us excellent value.
Washington Nationals over New York Mets: Bet this game action not listed pitchers in case Scherzer starts but I do expect him to pitch Wed. Wash has been off since last Thurs 5 days so that is a bit concerning. However they will get Soto back for this game. Nym have Rosario McNeil and Cano all questionable after their win in Atl last night. Matz expected to start for Nym he has pitched well in his 2 starts but he is a back of the rotation guy. Corbin on many teams would be a #1 in Wash he is #3.
Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins: Both teams are struggling offensively. Minn had a big explosion in hitter friendly Chic but have cooled down. Both bullpens are good as Clev moves to Karinchuk as closer. Minn will go with opener Clippard as Bailey has been pushed back a day. Clev is very familiar with Clippard as he pitched 2019 for them. Baddelli has not tipped his hand who will pitch after. Civale is a solid #4 in a deep talented Clev rotation. I have this game at pick-em giving us excellent value.
New York Mets over Boston Red Sox: We will rate the offenses equal at this point early on. Bullpen closer wise is a wash however Nym have an adv in depth. DeGrom was limited in his first start having not been extended during summer camp. He was still outstanding in his 5 inngs against a good Atl team. Eovaldi out of default has become the #1 for an awful Bost rotation. Eovaldi was solid in his first start but that was against Balt. This along with the past reputation of Bost provides the value. I have tis game priced at 1.91.
Saint Louis Cardinals over Minnesota Twins: We will call the bullpens equal for this one. We will give the edge in offense to Minn. How big an edge it is too early to tell. What we do know Minn is dependent on the long ball and Martinez does a good job of keeping the ball in the park. Martinez returns to the rotation for the 1st time in 2 years. I expect 70-80 pitches from him with a smooth trip. Bailey is at this point of his career an innings eater at best. He pitched with Kc and Oak last year both pitcher friendly parks and his numbers were mediocre.
Cincinnati Reds over Detroit Tigers: Besides Sea and Balt Det will be right there at the bottom of the barrel in this shortened season. Nova is well past his prime. His strike out rate is abysmal. His BAA last year 303. Castillo is a top of the rotation stud giving us a large adv in starting pitching. We also get a large adv on offence a med adv in the bullpen and home field. I have this game priced at 2.45 giving us excellent value.
Arizona Diamondbacks over San Diego Padres: Bumgarner comes over from SF replacing Greinke as the Ariz ace. No Bumgarner is not the pitcher he once was with mileage having piled up. However he is still very good and I am willing to grab him out of the gate while fresh and pumped to start for his new team. Paddack had a very good rookie campaign for Sd after being drafted in 2015 8th round. Let us see if he can duplicate this year. Worst case will rank SP a wash. Ariz added Marte to their line up while Sd added Pham and Profar. Out of the gate I will rank the offenses also equal.
Washington Nationals over New York Yankees: This line is the sports books predictable usual shading artificially towards the Nyy. Cole vs. Scherzer 2 stud pitchers really nothing negative to say about either 1 call it even. However keep in mind Nyy have a very RH line up which will help Scherzer navigate. Nyy have more power but call the offenses equal as well. Yes Wash lost Rendon and that hurts but they have also added the power of Thames. Nyy do have a med adv in the bullpen but that is reduced with the loss of Chapman.