Toronto Blue Jays over New York Yankees: Just the name Nyy will cause you to pay a premium. Look at the line up with their substantial injuries they are no where near at this point the team they were supposed to be. We will rate the bullpens equal for this one. Both have been overused and mediocre at best. Tor hits lefties better than righties and will face 1 tonight in Happ. We will have a small adv on offense. Starting pitching we will have a med adv.
San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: We get small adv across the board creating the value. Sp relief and offense. Cueto is well passed his prime and he just pitched a good game vs. Ariz but his deception gets him by. Although his ERA is 4.75 when you go under the hood his XERA is 3.49. Young is what he is probably best suited for middle relief. Ariz is not in good form playing out the string while SF still has some hope. I have this game at 1.44 giving us excellent value.
Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox: Only specify the Tor pitcher. Walker made his debut and it was a good one with Tor. He should be even more comfortable in his 2nd start but it will be a tougher line up with Bost. Perez is battling a blister issue his start was pushed back a day. We will take a small adv in SP. We will have a med adv out of the bullpen and we will rate the offenses equal.
Washington Nationals over Boston Red Sox: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. However could be plentiful tonight with a total of 11.5. Sanchez has been around for a long time. He has not pitched well. However he had a good start last time out vs. Mia that he can build off of. He is a positive regression candidate. Mazza will get called up again for this game. He has 1 start and 1 relief appearance this year both against Nyy. He was drafted 2011 27th round he is not a prospect and his numbers are bad.
Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals: We will give a med adv in the bullpen to Wash. Phil is really bad however they have recently added Workman, Hembree, and Parker which should help somewhat. I do expect Nola to pitch deep into this game which should minimize this issue. We will rate the offenses equal. The main value for this game is starters. Nola is off perhaps his worst start of his career vs. Atl. I expect a bounce back. Nola ERA is 3.10 but going under the hood his XERA 2.56. Corbin is solid this bet is not a fade against him but the gap vs.
Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox: Hart was drafted in 2016 19th round has trouble with command and is best suited for a middle relief role down the road. Anderson got a late start is just a steady 4th or 5th rotation guy on a good staff. He is still trying to get stretched out. However Tor will have at least a small adv in SP. Relief Tor will have a med adv where this game is likely to be won. I do not expect either starter to go deep. Offensively Tor will have a small adv.
Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs: Not a believer in either of these 2 starters. Both are pitching over their head. Both soft tossing lefties depend on fooling hitters than strikeouts. This is however a fade on Lester who allows morehard contact. White Sox have a very right handed hitting line up which does very well against LH starting pitchers. We will call the SP equal. Since the return from injury of Anderson to the lead off spot the White Sox offense especially against LH has taken off. We will get a small adv on offense. Bullpen we get a med adv.
Washington Nationals over New York Mets: This is a pitching re-match which we won from 08/04. Venue changes circumstances remain value is present. Matz velocity is down. Corbin went 5.6 against Nym last time out he did give up 8 hits but was able to K8 as well limiting the damage. We have a med adv in SP. Although statistically the bullpens are equal Wash sets up better for this one than Nym giving us a small adv here. Wash offense has really underperformed so far while the Nym are where expected.
Detroit Tigers over Pittsburgh Pirates: Musgrove was due to start for Pitts but a sore ankle will have him sidelined. Brault is expected to be the opener but regardless only specify the Det pitcher or simple bet action. Brault faced Det Fri threw 32 pitches did not get an out. 3 hits 3BB 4ER. He will not go deep and although both bullpens are overused and bad Pitts is in worse shape. Turnbull is decent pitcher on a bad team. Det is much better against LH. Pitts is expected to be without 3baseman Evans one of their better hitters.
Oakland Athletics over Houston Astros: Oak has won 7 in a row and their bats have still not got going. Oak is 5-0 when LH starts. Worst case we are equal on offense although Houst will be down Springer and their offense has struggled all year as well. Pitching for Oak Montas we have a med adv over Valdez. Montas should go deeper in this game and his stuff is nasty. He does not give up the long ball but walks this year have been an issue. Bullpen we also have a med adv. Both bullpens have been used a lot lately however Oak sets up better.