Free NFL Picks

Houston Texans over Kansas City Chiefs: Kc finished the pre-season 4-0 big deal but part of the reason this line has value. RB Charles is very good not fading him but I have never been sold on QB Smith and his inability to throw down field. In addition he will take the snaps in front of a very inexperienced offensive line.

Arizona Cardinals – Oakland Raiders Under: This will be the 1st road game for Ariz. Even at home they have been very conservative in bringing Palmer along from his injury of last year. Both teams have struggled offensively in their first 2 games.

Tennessee Titans over Kansas City Chiefs: The money is pouring in on Kc to the point that we can now take excellent value Tenn. This line is predicated on the projections of these 2 teams this year. Tenn will not be good especially on defense while Kc is looking at a 9-11 win season. Secondly Kc is off to a 2-0 pre-season start beating Ariz & Sea. None of the above means anything regarding tonight. Kc won their 2 games but outgained their opponents by 73 yards. Kc even though they are at home having nothing to prove. The key tonight get your work in and avoid injuries.

Detroit Lions over New York Jets: I hate to spot points anytime but you can double that thought in the pre-season. However for this game we still get value. This is not about Smith being out he stinks anyway. It is not about going against Fitzpatrick he may even play a little longer and he is serviceable. Depending on how the game is going they may even pull Fitz sooner not risking further injury. However after Fits you have 2 Qb’s Heaps and Petty who simply are not ready.

Seattle Seahawks over New England Patriots: Let us start by taking nothing away from NE. NE will likely be a much tougher opponent than Den was last year for Sea. However this line is weighed too heavily on the conf final results. NE blew out Indi while Sea struggled big time especially on offense vs. GB. Do not look for that to happen again. When you have the #1 rushing offense combined with the #1 overall ranked defense and you can get that team at pick that is value.

Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks: This line is simply too high. Much is being made of the Rodgers injury and yes it is a factor but it is more than part of the line. Second too much is made of the first game of the year as a 4.5 point favorite Sea won 36-16 that has no relevance today except the spread is substantially higher for new reason.

Indianapolis Colts over Denver Broncos: At 8 there was no value in either direction. At 10 that is a buy signal for Indi. Manning was not sharp down the stretch. We saw Balt cover a big # in NE at I see a similar game here. These 2 teams played early in the year with Den winning 31-24 as a 8 point favorite.

Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys: Make no mistake Dall has had a very good year and Romo has cut down on his mistakes. However in GB and the line this low the value is on the home team. Much is being made of the injury to Rodgers but all reports suggest he will be just fine. In what looks to be a high scoring game I do not see Dall being able to keep pace. Lacy will be able to match Murray.

New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens: Give NE and coach Bill 2 weeks to prepare and that usually spells trouble for the opposition. I was on the wrong side predicting Pitts last week as I thought Roth would be able to exploit the Balt 2ndary. He did not however I will come back again with Brady and the NE offensive line to do more.

Dallas Cowboys over Detroit Lions: Bettors are reluctant to lay this many points on a Dall team + Romo that in prior years would implode. This year is different. Romo is having his best year yet. We get a huge adv at QB with Romo vs. Stafford. RB Murray is also having a career year and Dall will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air.