San Diego Chargers over Kansas City Chiefs: Much of week 1 is about perception vs. reality. Kc off of last year is considered elite and SD well they have no real home and are unlikely to make the playoffs. Part of this is true but it has little to do with getting value for this game. This is a lot of points for a divisional game especially week 1. Rivers is an elite QB and with an improved offensive line and a rebound from Gordon at RB he should put up some good numbers. Offensive co-ord Whisenhunt is also back which should help.
Denver Broncos over Carolina Panthers: Regular followers of my football picks know that I do not often play stand along high profile games simply because they rarely have value. Tonight is an exception. The public is all over Car. When do you find the defending Super Bowl champ open up at home as a dog. Did anyone watch the Super Bowl last year? So Car has revenge on their minds. Big deal revenge has no relevance here. It is extremely hard to play in the thin area of Den. So Manning is gone again Big Deal. He was hanging on at the end. He could barely throw a deep ball.
Jacksonville Jaguars over Cincinnati Bengals: Cinci is a veteran team Lewis is a secure tenured coach at 1-1 this game means nothing to them. The goal for Cinci put in the work and most importantly avoid injuries. Jack is a young team 0-2 so far whom this game means much more to. Home game stand alone night game we will get the best at least for pre-season from Jack which gets us our value.
New Orleans Saints over Pittsburgh Steelers: Both teams are 0-2 in the pre-season. Pitts lost both at home while NO lost both on the road. This will obviously be their home opener and that always provides a little extra incentive regardless if pre-season or not. Tomlin has never cared about pre-season. He is 2-13 in his last 15 s/u. Once Brees and Roth get their work in I will prefer McCown and Grayson over Jones and Vaughan. Asking NO in their home opener to win by a field goal gives us good value.
New York Giants over Miami Dolphins: The line on this game has not changed since the announcement Manning and Cruz will not play. That tells you what the line maker thinks of this game. Yesterday for example when it went public Flacco would not go the line moved 3 points. In other words Nassib and Thomas against the 4 Mia Qb’s incl Tannehill and Moore have the edge. Mia has a new coach Gase and it will take time for his systems to grab hold. Mcadoo takes over for NYG and I am sure at home he would like to get things off to a good start. Next week NYG head to Buff.
Carolina Panthers over Denver Broncos: I will predict this line will continue to move up maybe 6.0 or more by game time unless bettors decide to middle. However at this number we will go now and get value and a bargain. We will hear over the next 2 weeks how good the Den defense is and what they did to Brady. Well Newton is a different beast bigger and with much more mobility.
New England Patriots over Denver Broncos: No doubt Den is a tough place to win. Rarely will we spot points here with the road team. However like everything else there are exceptions to the rule. We will start with the fact obviously a veteran healthy NE team will have no issues in this environment. Edleman, Gronk, Amondola tough trio to stop especially with Brady at QB. Combine this with a Den team hurting in the secondary. CB Harris is not 100% S Bolden is out.
Denver Broncos over Pittsburgh Steelers: The injuries slant in this one ids obvious but they have not fully impacted the line accurately. Brown is out Williams is out Roethlisberger is nowhere near 100% and if he has to leave enter Landry Jones. Pitts has not played well for 3 weeks luckily escaping Cinci last game.
New England Patriots over Kansas City Chiefs: Kc has won 11 in a row. Hoyer was horrible last week and the opening kickoff was returned for a TD this game was over fast. All of this leads to a lower than should be line for this week.
Washington Redskins over Green Bay Packers: Reputation vs. reality has this line out of whack. Gb started out 6-0 since than they have gone 4-6 and that includes the miracle against Det. Rodgers is still Rodgers but the loss of Nelson and weak offensive line has really hurt him not to mention an ineffective run game.