Baltimore Ravens over Chicago Bears: Not interested in laying any points in what will likely be a very low scoring game. The 4th quarter should be very ugly. However the money line with Balt offers the best value. Harbaugh is 27-13 ATS in pre-season. He does put some emphasis on winning. Chic has a new coach Nagy formerly the off-cord of the KC Chiefs. Chic with the coaching changes will be a work in progress. Trubisky vs. Flacco we will call a wash both should only play a few series. The real value It will be Jackson and RG3 in a real battle for the #2 spot for Balt.
New England Patriots over Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl 52: This line opened at 6.0 and for the first week the money has come in on Phil moving the line to where it is now. That provides us the buy signal and value on NE. I am expecting as the 2nd week moves along the money will come in on NE. Part of the early money on Phil is the Phil superior defense. However NE has the #1 rated pass offense Phil 16th in pass defense. Secondly everyone saw the dominant win Phil posted against a very good Minn defense adding how well Foles played as well.
New England Patriots over Atlanta Falcons: This bet takes nothing away from Atl they are obviously very good especially on offense. However like most Super Bowls it has little to do with X’s and O’s. Experience in general is overblown and it is an easy angle for lazy handicappers to latch on to. However when it comes to a game like this it is relevant. It usually takes 1-2 times getting there before you can win it. It becomes even more pronounced when you go up against NE and the combo of Brady-Belichick who this game has almost become routine.
New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers: Pitts is really struggling in the red zone. You cannot beat or cover against NE if you cannot get it consistently in the end zone because you know they are going to. Pitts also has the flu going through the team. Than you have Brown giving NE bulletin board material. Next you have a NE team that actually had an off game last week they were not sharp and despite this they win by 18. I have this game at 8.0 giving us excellent value.
Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons: There is no denying how explosive the Atl offense and they have an adv medium size over Sea in this area. However Wilson is healthier than he has been all year. RB Prosise who will be a game time decision along with Rawls should be able to move the ball and control the clock keeping Ryan off the field as much as possible. We are getting substantial points with the 5th ranked defense even with Thomas out. We are also going up against the 25th ranked Atl defense. If Sea is able to keep Atl under 28 they have a serious chance to win this game outright.
Oakland Raiders over Houston Texans: We went down in flames with Oak last week in a horrible no show against Den but we will not hesitate to come back on them in this situation. Yes Oak will go with 3rd stringer Cook. That has many backing off and has the points available inflated. Cook looked decent in relief last week and will now have had time to prepare. Secondly Cook is from Mich St. it is not like he has not played in big games in hostile environments with a bigger crowd than he will see today. Secondly Osweiler was benched and now is back because Savage has a concussion.
Oakland Raiders over Denver Broncos: This season cannot end quickly enough for Den. Den will play both Siemian and Paxton to give them some reps. Yes Carr is out for Oak and it is a big loss but this is one game and Carr out has been fully factored in this line. McGloin is obviously not Carr but he has been in the system and Oak will not be asking him to win the game just manage it. Oak wins they clinch the AFC west. Oak will rely on Murray and their 5th ranked rushing offense going up against the 29th ranked rush defense of Den.
Miami Dolphins over Buffalo Bills: Moore has 1 game under his belt as starter this year so that should help. Is Moore really that much worse than Taylor anyway? Regardless this play has little to do with Moore. Mia is 8-2 s/u last 10. Mia is on the verge of going to the playoffs Buff is going home. Buff has 7 wins. 1 was against NE without Brady while their other 6 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 16-65. Both teams should be able to run the ball effectively. Ajayi got 214 last time these 2 teams met.
New Orleans Saints over Arizona Cardinals: Both teams are now playing out the string. Brees is coming off 2 bad games in a row and I am expecting a bounce back from him. This will be the #1 offense vs. the #1 defense. Ariz offensive line is a mess there is no protection for Palmer and now he has lost Floyd who was released this week. In addition Ariz has cluster injuries on defense. The points offered provide a nice cushion but I expect NO to win outright.
Tennessee Titans over Kansas City Chiefs: Kc is a very conservative offense. They love to run the ball. Tenn is ranked 3rd in defending the run while with Murray on the other side of the ball they are ranked 3rd in rushing offense going up against the 27th ranked Kc rush defense. Kc will also be without LB Johnson a big loss not full reflected in the line. Tenn just held Den at home to 18 yards rushing. Kc has abig game against Den on deck. Kc have won 3 in a row however the total point differential 12 so they are not exactly blowing people out.