Detroit Lions over New York Giants: Concern over the finger of Stafford has an impact on this line. Concern of how many close games Det plays an issue but not for me. First of all they are winning those games. Det is 9-1 in their last 10. We are not spotting points we are getting them big difference. Det seemed to struggle last week against a bad Chic team at home and that as well has an impact on this line. The Det defense has not given up more than 20 points in 7 weeks.
Arizona Cardinals over Miami Dolphins: Ariz attempts to keep its slim playoff chances alive. Both teams have stud running backs however that are where the similarities end. Mia has the 30th ranked rush defense and Ariz has balance on offense. Ariz is 9th in pass offense so it is not like Mia will be able to crowd the line and just stop Johnson. Ajayi has also established himself as a premier running back. However Ariz has the 2nd ranked overall defense 11th against the rush.
New York Jets over Indianapolis Colts: Yes Luck will be back from his concussion. Big deal the supporting cast is very weak. No ground game Gore is well past his prime. Hilton is not 100%. Indo comes in with the 30th ranked defense incl 30th against the pass. Not asking Fitz to win this game just do not make mistakes. Get the ball to Marshall on the outside and hand the ball to a resurgent Forte. Indi has played the 27th ranked schedule while NYJ come in at 5th making the gap between these teams nonexistent.
Detroit Lions over New Orleans Saints: Rarely are we able to take back this amount of points in a game where the dog has as good a shot as this to win outright. I have this game at 4 giving us excellent value. There is no getting around how good the NO offense is especially at home. That attracts the public money. However the NO defense is equally bad and Det should be able to control the clock with their short and diversified passing game. In other words expect a high scoring game but eventually that NO defense will wear down not that is was any good to begin with.
Dallas Cowboys over Minnesota Vikings: Sometimes the obvious play is the right play. Both teams come off games from Thanksgiving day. So the short week fatigue travel lack of prep time does not apply for this Thurs night game. Dall weakness defending the pass however with Bradford and the Minn 24th ranked passing offense and their short 3 yard passes this should not a concern. Look for Dall to crowd the line of scrimmage double team Diggs on the outside who is not 100% and force Bradford to make him beat them. Minn does have an adv on defense but eventually Dall will wear them down.
San Diego Chargers over Houston Texans: My assault on an overrated HOust team will not stop. Osweiler maybe the worst QB in the league and that is saying a lot when Cutler is still around. Houst is in 1st in the very weak AFC South and that gives us a beneficial line. Houst has a -34 point differential. Houst will also come in off a short week after a disappointing loss (not for us) in Mex. Sd comes in off a bye and a rare bad game from Rivers against Mia the week before. Sd weakness is defending the pass which I see no such weakness in this game given the QB for Houst.
Oakland Raiders over Houston Texans: This game will be played in Mexico City. We lost fading Houst last week but it was not so much they won the game but Jack lost. Now Houst takes a big step up in class. Osweiler should wear a mask Elway knew he was going Osweiler and the Houst pass offense is ranked 32nd. He is stealing his money. Look for Houst to rely on Murray and the running game while Oak will stack the box forcing Houst to throw. Oak comes in off their bye.
Buffalo Bills over Cincinnati Bengals: Buff stock is low since they have lost 3 in a row. However they are coming of their bye and those losses came against Mia NE and Sea 2 of them on the road. Cinci is struggling as well especially on defense where they are ranked 24th. !7th against the pass and 24th against the run. This will be a difficult task with Buff ranked 2nd in rush offense behind running QB Taylor and RB Mccoy. Cinci is on a short week after losing late on the road Monday night to the NYG. Despite being on the road I have this game at pick giving us excellent value.
Jacksonville Jaguars over Houston Texans: This is more a fade on Houst however we will deal with Jack first. Much was expected of this team this year but turnovers and Bortles has not taken the next step forward. Jack has lost 3 in a row. They have lost 3 games by 5 points or less. Last week they dominated KC on the road 449-231 in yards. 100 yards rushing from Ivory but 4 turnovers and they lose 19-14. It has been like that all year. However Bortles is still better than Osweiler and Houst offense is ranked 30th. Both teams should be able to run the ball effectively.
San Diego Chargers over Tennessee Titans: This game is as strong an example for why in handicapping wins and losses are so misleading and why we are able to capitalize. Secondly when we often write about looking under the hood this game well let’s take a picture of the circumstances and put it in the dictionary for the definition. Tenn is 3-1 last 4 lost to Indi beat Jack Mia and Houst. SD is 2-2 and their games were against Den twice Atl and Oak. For the season Tenn has played the absolute easiest schedule and yet they sit only 4-4.