Green Bay Packers over Los Angeles Rams: This will not be a bet against Lar simply a value play given these points are inflated. Lar are the class of the league. Well coached excellent Qb balanced offense and a very good defense. Having said al this GB defense is not too bad either. The offense led by Qb Rodgers can go toe to toe with Lar. Even if the Rams jump out a lead the back door will remain wide open for GB. Gb is off a bye. Lar have N.O. on tap next week.
Detroit Lions over Miami Dolphins: Det is off their bye. Det for the first time in a long time has a balanced offense. RB Johnson has been effective and the WR’s of Tate Golladay and Jones have been dynamic catching balls from Stafford. Mia played a tough OT game vs. Chic winning 31-28. Osweiler had his best game as a pro and that is saying something. Now Patricia has had a week to prepare for this stiff. Look for the return of the QB we know. Mia is also suffering cluster injuries on the defensive line. I have this game at 4.5 giving us excellent value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Cleveland Browns: Tb started off winning their first 2 and now have lost 3 in a row s/u. Those losses came against Pitts Chic and Atl. Now at home they take a step down in class with Clev. Yes Clev is improving but there is a long way to go. Mayfield shows some promise but the hype is way above the results. Tb weakness has been pass defense however pass offense is not the strength of Clev. Clev runs the ball well with Johnson and Hyde however Tb is 5th in rush defense.
Tennessee Titans over Baltimore Ravens: It what is expected to be a low scoring close game taking back these points is where the value is. This will be the 3rd straight road game for Balt. They lost last week in OT to Clev giving up 342 yards through the air. This is also an opportunity to buy Tenn low. They lost at Buff last week but statistically won most of the battles. Both teams are strong defensively. Balt was spotting the same amount of points last week at Clev now in Tenn who are better in my opinion than Clev while Balt is in a worse spot.
Minnesota Vikings over Arizona Cardinals: Not often you will see me lay this type of lumber perhaps 1-2 times per season. However for this game there is value. Minn has learned their lesson as a double digit fav losing outright to Buff. I cannot see them making the same mistake again. WE a road game against Nyj there is no look ahead. Minn has the 3rd ranked pass offense while Ariz comes in 13th in pass defense. Look for Cousins to Thielen and Diggs to have good days. Ariz is 32nd in most offensive categories. Tough to see them scoring more than 10.
New England Patriots over Kansas City Chiefs: Not many games during the regular season will you get the full attention and effort from NE however this game will be the case. Sunday night football at home against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. NE last played on Thursday night so extra prep and rest time for this game. Obviously this looks to be a high scoring game and Kc will get theirs. However NE will be going up against the 32 ranked defense. Michel at RB has helped balance the NE offense. You have White catching the ball out of the backfield.
Detroit Lions over Green Bay Packers: The reputation vs. reality of GB has this line lower than it should be. Cobb will be out Rodgers will play well as always however why should GB be pick in Det. Det does a good job against the pass while their weakness stopping the run is not something GB does. At 1-3 the Det season is already in jeopardy. A heart breaking loss to Dall on the road last week I fully expect their best today and escape with a win at home.
Dallas Cowboys over Houston Texans: The battle of Texas. Last week we faded Dall and covered with Det here on my you tube channel when Dall kicked a field goal with no time left to win but not cover. Dall with their pedestrian offense is much better in the dog role than favorite. Dall returned to what they do best last week run the ball with Elliot and control the clock. Houst finally got a win a draining 37-34 OT win over Indi on the road. Houst despite a mobile QB in Watson have given up the 2nd most sacks just in front of Buff.
Philadelphia Eagles over Tennessee Titans: Not often I will spot road points but the host is an imposter at 2-1. Tenn beat a flat Jax team on the road last week scoring a total of 9 points. Rb Henry has a bad back will be limited as will Mariota with a right hand injury. Mariota when healthy is not good. Tenn is ranked 30th on offense. Phil has not hit on all cylinders yet after winning the Super Bowl last year. Wentz will start his second game and should be better. Ajayi, Jeffery and Sproles are all expected to play.
Cincinnati Bengals over Atlanta Falcons: It would take a whole page to list the injuries Atl has on defence. Add to this RB Freeman as well. Usually injuries are accurately already reflected in the line however when you have this many and they are a cluster there is the chance they have not been reflected in the line completely. Atl is off 2 exhausting games against NO in OT and Car. Tough to see they will have much in the gas tank even at home. Cinci is off a loss on the road at Car. This loss looks worse than it was with Dalton throwing 4 picks.