Idaho Vandals over Colorado St. Rams: There is no question who the motivated interested team is. Ida sees this as a true reward taking back substantial double digits and they will be playing close to home. It is not like they finished the year badly either. 4 in a row straight up and 7 in a row ATS. The year started badly for Ida so much so against 2 very good teams that they have been asked to leave the conf and drop down which they will be doing in another year. This game is a chance in a minor bowl game that they are a decent team.
UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns over Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: Virtual home game for ULL. ULL finished strong down the stretch and this bowl game will be a reward for them. ULL has a weak passing game but they can control this match up with stud running back McGuire. S.Miss has been inconsistent at best this year. Higher expectations it has been a disappointing year despite the big numbers Sr QB Mullens has put up. This is a lot of points to be offered for a team that may not even care about the end result.
San Diego State Aztecs over Houston Cougars: This will be the final game for Houst QB Ward and his profile alone is one piece that has Houst overvalued. Houst had their sights on a bigger bowl game so motivation and disappointment are questionable. In addition given the line they are being asked to win by a margin. Coach Herman has left for Texas Applewhite takes over. SdSt has Chapman at QB he is not asked to win games but to manage them and he does a good job of just that. RB Pumphrey has a chance if he gains 108 yards to be the all-time career rushing leader for the FBS.
Vanderbilt Commodores over Tennessee Volunteers: This time of year it is all about motivation. Tenn takes to the road knowing Flor has locked up the SEC. Vandy has a chance to go to a bowl with a win tonight and that would be a big accomplishment for this group. Last week as a 9.5 point dog they beat Miss outright 38-17. Tenn has been inconsistent all year while the Vandy defense and running game has a chance to control this game.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane over Cincinnati Bearcats: Tul is 5-0 s/u at home. 6-0 ATS in their last 6. Not often I lay this type of wood but this match has massacre written all over it. The running tandem of Brewer and Flanders has been unstoppable. Evans is really improving with a QB rating of 138.0. Cinci is a mess. 1-6 s/u last 7 and ATS the last 4 games they have been outscored 112-26. Teams this late in the season who have had bad years quit when they fall behind especially on the road. I am expecting this one to get ugly.
Washington State Cougars over Colorado Buffaloes: Off vs. Def in this matchup in what shapes up to be a very big game for 2 surprising teams. Wash ST. has won 8 in a row scoring on avg 46.5 and winning by an average margin of 25.8. Led by Jr QB Falk he is a leader nationally in most key QB categories. Liufau is the SR QB for Col very good but recently he has been making mistakes at key times. I fully expect this game to go to the wire and of course Wash St. has a great chance to win outright with the points offered a great cushion. I have this game at 3.0 giving us excellent value.
UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns over Georgia Southern Eagles: Not much was expected from ULL this year and basically that is how it has played out. Much was expected from Georgia Southern however it has been a disappointing season for them. Since an early good start against weak competition it has been bad from there. However they are still being priced based on reputation. I get to take a team receiving substantial points with the better defense and less concerns on the injury front.
California Golden Bears over Washington Huskies: Wash is undefeated and ranked 4th that alone means if you bet on them you will be paying a premium. Cal is 3-0 at home both s/u and ATS. Cal has played a slightly more difficult schedule than Wash. Wash is off a tough road game in Ut and now they have to take the road again spotting a substantial amount of points. Cal defense is horrible no getting around it. However offensively led by SR Webb they can score with the best of them. Cal is also expected WR Hansen back after missing 2 games that will be a big boost.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Miami Hurricanes: Two teams that mirror each other. Two teams with good QB’s whereby both teams have had very disappointing seasons. Mia started 4-0 and has now lost 3 straight. They were ranked as high as #10. They are having huge issues on the offensive line. ND cannot put a complete game together. One time the offense plays well next time defense. Coach Kelly is now on the proverbial hot seat. Coming off a bye home field adv some misleading close losses and the prior reputation of Mia gets us our value on ND.
Penn State Nittany Lions over Ohio State Buckeyes: Oh St. is fully deserving of their #2 ranking. However they are off a tough OT road win over Wisc which puts them in a letdown spot as they take the road as a huge favorite in Penn St. Penn St. by the way is off their bye week they are battle tested and at home a very tough venue for visitors to play at. I am not suggesting Penn St. can win this outright but should be able to stay well within this number with the back door wide open. I have this game at 17.5 giving us excellent value.